Atlassian Shares Plunge 15.34% In Two Days As Bearish Signals Intensify

Atlassian (TEAM) shares declined 6.52% in the latest session, extending losses to a second consecutive day with a cumulative 15.34% drop, closing at $187.01 on elevated volume of 3.55 million shares. This sharp downturn reflects accelerating bearish momentum amid heightened volatility.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal critical bearish signals. The July 9–10 sessions formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $220.89 and $200.05, respectively, erasing prior gains with expanding range and volume, confirming distribution. The subsequent breakdown below $200 established psychological resistance. Key support now anchors at $186.25 (July 11 low), with secondary support near April lows of $155. Resistance is firm at $200–$201.49, the upper wick of the latest candle.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration signals entrenched bearish bias. The 50-day SMA (estimated ~$210) crossed below the 100-day SMA (~$215) after July 10’s sell-off, triggering a death cross that often precedes extended downtrends. Price remains below all key SMAs, with the 200-day SMA (estimated ~$225) acting as distant resistance. This alignment underscores strong downward momentum, with no immediate reversal catalysts evident.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits bearish dominance, with the MACD line plunging further below the signal line and histogram expanding negatively, indicating accelerating downward momentum. KDJ metrics align with oversold conditions but lack reversal signals; the %K line (fast stochastic) at 10–15 is buried below %D, reflecting persistent selling pressure. While technically oversold, these oscillators show no bullish divergence to suggest a recovery.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands highlight heightened volatility, with the July 11 close ($187.01) piercing the lower band (~$190) for the second consecutive day—a rarity signaling extreme downside momentum. Bandwidth expanded 40% during the two-day sell-off, confirming volatility breakout. Sustained trading below the lower band is unsustainable historically, but any rebound would need to reclaim $195 to exit this oversold territory.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis validates bearish conviction. The two-day 15.34% drop occurred on 125% above-average volume (7.36M shares vs. 3M avg), confirming capitulation. Downside volume has dominated since the July 9 peak, with distribution days consistently outweighing accumulation. The lack of volume spikes during minor rallies underscores weak buyer interest.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plunged to 25, deeply oversold. However, this reading follows a sharp divergence warning: as prices dropped to $200 on July 10, RSI marginally exceeded its June low while prices made lower lows—a bearish divergence flagging weakness. The current oversold condition warrants caution but does not negate the downtrend without price confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the significant May 13 high ($229.52) and July 11 low ($186.25) reveals critical levels. The 23.6% retracement ($194.83) aligns with the July 11 high ($201.49), creating immediate resistance. Confluence exists at the 38.2% level ($200.13)—near the psychological $200 barrier and the 100-day SMA. A sustained break below $186.25 may target the 127.2% extension ($172.50).
Confluence and Divergence Synthesis
Confluence of bearish signals dominates: breakdown below $200 occurred alongside a moving average death cross, MACD acceleration, and volume-backed distribution. The sole counterpoint is deep RSI/KDJ oversold readings, which lack bullish divergence. A temporary technical bounce may occur from $186 support, but sustained recovery requires reconquering the $200–$201.49 resistance cluster where SMA, Fibonacci, and psychological barriers converge.