Atlanta Fed Chief Sticks to 25-Basis-Point 2025 Rate Cut Outlook Amid Weak Jobs Data

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has reaffirmed his projection of a single 25-basis-point rate cut in 2025, maintaining a cautious and data-dependent approach to monetary policy. Speaking in the wake of a weak U.S. jobs report, Bostic emphasized that while the labor market shows signs of softening, inflation remains the central bank's primary concern, staying "further from target" than employment trends. This stance suggests that the Fed will not accelerate its rate-cutting path despite growing speculation among investors [1].

Bostic's comments reinforce the Federal Reserve’s broader policy framework, which has placed strong emphasis on controlling inflation while remaining open to future adjustments. He noted that any decisions regarding rate adjustments will hinge on incoming data over the next several months. "We need to reassess our views as new data becomes available," he stated, underscoring the data-driven strategy that has guided the Fed in recent months [2]. This approach contrasts with more aggressive calls from some dissenting officials who advocate for earlier intervention to support economic growth [5].

Market expectations for a rate cut continue to climb, as reflected in federal funds futures. These contracts currently imply an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and a 68% chance at the October meeting [4]. Despite these expectations, Bostic has not indicated a need to adjust his current forecast, signaling a measured approach to policy adjustments [3].

The implications of Bostic’s stance are already being felt in financial markets. The U.S. dollar has weakened, and gold has surged as investors anticipate a more accommodative Fed policy. The EUR/USD pair has also experienced a notable increase following the latest economic data and Bostic’s remarks [7]. In addition, the cryptocurrency market—historically sensitive to interest rate expectations—has shown signs of volatility, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reacting to shifts in the Fed’s communication [6].

Bostic did not address recent trade policy developments or tariff concerns, instead focusing on the importance of data in guiding the Fed’s decision-making process. He reiterated the central bank’s commitment to transparency and adaptability, reinforcing the notion that no policy shift is currently warranted [8].

As the Fed moves into a pivotal policy period, Bostic’s outlook provides clarity on the central bank’s approach to balancing inflation control with economic growth. While uncertainty persists, his cautious and data-driven stance reflects the Fed’s ongoing effort to navigate the complexities of the current economic environment [9].

Source:

[1] Fed's Bostic: Jobs data show economy may be weakening, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-bostic-jobs-data-show-152718343.html

[2] Bostic Stresses Cautious Fed Approach as Labor Market ..., https://www.ainvest.com/news/bostic-stresses-cautious-fed-approach-labor-market-weakness-lingers-2508/

[3] Fed's Bostic admits Fed is in a "difficult environment" as ..., https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-6-1006223-20250801

[4] Tariffs and Economic Jitters Hammer Stocks, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tariffs-and-economic-jitters-hammer-stocks

[5] Weakening US jobs market bolsters dissenting Fed officials ..., https://www.reuters.com/world/us/weakening-us-jobs-market-bolsters-dissenting-fed-officials-position-2025-08-01/

[6] After Employment Data, Senior Fed Official Bostic Talks ..., https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/after-employment-data-senior-fed-official-bostic-talks-about-rate-cuts-what-does-he-expect/

[7] EUR/USD skyrockets as US jobs data triggers Fed rate cut ..., https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-1-1006733-20250802

[8] Fed's Bostic not ready to boost rate cut view after weak jobs ..., https://seekingalpha.com/news/4476629-feds-bostic-not-ready-to-boost-rate-cut-view-after-weak-jobs-report

[9] Weakening US jobs market hits center of Fed rate policy ..., https://www.reuters.com/world/us/weakening-us-jobs-market-hits-center-fed-rate-policy-debate-2025-08-01/