ASUR's April Traffic Growth Reflects Regional Divergence Amid Holiday Shifts

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR), one of Mexico’s leading airport operators, reported a 1.3% year-over-year rise in April 2024 passenger traffic to 5.8 million passengers. While this modest increase may seem unremarkable at first glance, the data reveals a stark regional divergence: Colombia and Puerto Rico delivered robust growth, while Mexico’s domestic travel sector stumbled—a trend that underscores both operational challenges and strategic opportunities for investors.

Regional Performance: A Tale of Two Markets

The April results highlight contrasting fortunes across ASUR’s portfolio:

Colombia: Strong Recovery in Domestic and International Travel

Colombia’s passenger traffic surged 17.9% year-over-year, driven by 16.2% growth in domestic travel and a 25.3% jump in international arrivals. Airports like Rionegro (Medellín) and Montería led the charge, with domestic traffic up 17.7% and 26.9%, respectively. This rebound contrasts sharply with April 2023, when Colombia’s traffic fell 18.2% due to airline suspensions (Viva Air and Ultra Air). The recovery suggests a return to stability in Colombia’s aviation sector, though year-to-date (YTD) figures remain modest at 2.3% growth, reflecting lingering headwinds in smaller airports like Carepa and Quibdó.

Puerto Rico: Balanced Growth

Puerto Rico’s San Juan Airport reported a 9.4% traffic increase, with domestic and international travel rising nearly in tandem (9.4% and 9.2%, respectively). YTD growth of 11.5% underscores sustained demand, likely fueled by post-pandemic tourism recovery and strong transcontinental connections. This consistency positions Puerto Rico as a reliable growth engine for ASUR.

Mexico: Domestic Travel Declines Weigh on Results

Mexico’s passenger traffic fell 5.6% year-over-year, driven by a 10.7% plunge in domestic travel. Major hubs like Cancún and Huatulco saw domestic traffic drop 19.8% and 18.8%, respectively, while smaller airports like Cozumel (+31.3%) and Villahermosa (+15.0%) bucked the trend. The decline was partly attributed to the shift of Holy Week to March 2024, which drew travelers away from April. International traffic in Mexico dipped 1.0%, though airports like Veracruz (+27.4%) and Mérida (+14.6%) showed resilience.

Year-to-date, Mexico’s traffic grew 1.5%, lagging Colombia and Puerto Rico, as domestic weakness offset gains in international travel. Cancún, ASUR’s largest airport, saw total traffic fall 8.2% year-over-year, underscoring the risks tied to its reliance on a single hub.

Key Drivers and Risks

1. Holy Week Timing: The shift of Mexico’s key travel period to March likely depressed April demand. Investors should monitor whether this pattern persists or reverses in future quarters.
2. Colombia’s Resilience: The rebound in Colombia’s international traffic (up 24.7% YTD) suggests pent-up demand, but domestic recovery remains uneven.
3. Puerto Rico’s Momentum: With international traffic to San Juan rising 19.2% YTD, Puerto Rico’s growth appears sustainable, benefiting from its position as a gateway for U.S. travelers.
4. Mexico’s Diversification Need: Cancún accounts for nearly half of ASUR’s Mexican traffic. A sustained decline here could pressure overall results unless smaller airports like Cozumel and Villahermosa continue their strong performance.

Conclusion: A Mixed Picture for Investors

ASUR’s April traffic reflects a company navigating divergent regional trends. While Colombia and Puerto Rico are rebounding strongly, Mexico’s domestic sector faces headwinds tied to both seasonal shifts and structural challenges. The 3.3% YTD growth through April 2024 offers a cautiously optimistic outlook, but investors must weigh the risks of overreliance on Cancún against the promise of growth in secondary markets.

The data also highlights the importance of airline partnerships and route diversification for ASUR’s airports. Colombia’s revival, for instance, relied on international carriers filling gaps left by local airline suspensions. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico’s balanced growth signals the value of a diversified traveler base. For investors, ASUR’s performance will hinge on whether Mexico’s smaller airports can offset Cancún’s volatility and whether Colombia’s recovery gains momentum. With international traffic across all regions up 8.7% YTD, there’s reason for cautious optimism—but the path to sustained growth remains uneven.