Is Astrana Health (ASTH) a High-Growth Buy in 2026?

The U.S. healthcare sector is undergoing a transformative shift toward value-based care, and Astrana Health (ASTH) has positioned itself at the forefront of this evolution. With a business model centered on aligning financial incentives with patient outcomes, the company has demonstrated robust financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and a growing footprint in high-margin value-based contracts. As 2026 approaches, investors are scrutinizing whether ASTH's momentum can translate into sustained growth amid evolving market dynamics.

Financial Performance and Strategic Expansion

Astrana Health's third-quarter 2025 results underscore its accelerating trajectory. Total revenue surged to $956.0 million, a 100% year-over-year increase, driven by the successful integration of its Prospect Health acquisition and expanded risk-based contracts. Adjusted EBITDA reached $68.5 million, exceeding guidance, while the company updated its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to $3.1 billion–$3.18 billion, reflecting progress in scaling operations.

Notably, 78% of ASTH's revenue now comes from value-based contracts, up from 60% in 2024, a critical metric for long-term margin stability in an industry increasingly prioritizing cost efficiency.

Strategic partnerships have further solidified ASTH's market position. Collaborations with Intermountain Health in southern Nevada and a Southern California provider group-serving over 40,000 members-highlight its ability to expand primary care access while leveraging data-driven models to improve outcomes. These moves align with broader industry trends, as payers and providers seek to reduce costs under Medicare Advantage (MA) programs, a segment where ASTH has shown particular strength.

Analyst Outlook and Growth Projections

Wall Street analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish on ASTH's prospects. A median price target of $37.00 implies a 46.7% upside from its current price of $25.22, with some forecasts, like Michael Ha's $54.00 target at Baird, suggesting a potential 114.1% gain. The "Strong Buy" consensus, supported by 78% of analysts, reflects confidence in ASTH's ability to capitalize on its Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement segments. These segments-focused on physician networks, facility operations, and technology integration- position the company to benefit from economies of scale and margin expansion as it transitions to full-risk arrangements.

The optimism is grounded in ASTH's operational leverage. By investing in data analytics and care coordination platforms, the company aims to reduce avoidable hospitalizations and optimize resource allocation- a strategy that analysts argue will drive both cost savings and revenue growth. For instance, its Care Enablement segment, which provides the technological backbone for value-based care, is expected to become a recurring revenue stream as more providers adopt its tools.

Risks and Considerations

Despite the positive momentum, challenges persist. Delays in transitioning to full-risk contracts have compressed 2025 guidance, and integration of recent acquisitions could strain operational efficiency. Additionally, regulatory shifts in MA programs or reimbursement policies could disrupt ASTH's risk-based models. However, analysts argue that these risks are short-term and that the company's long-term positioning in value-based care-now accounting for nearly 80% of revenue-provides a durable competitive edge.

Conclusion: A High-Growth Buy for 2026?

Astrana Health's financial results, strategic partnerships, and analyst consensus paint a compelling case for its inclusion in a growth-oriented portfolio. The company's ability to scale value-based contracts, coupled with its technological investments, addresses systemic inefficiencies in U.S. healthcare. While near-term uncertainties exist, the long-term trajectory-backed by a 46.7% median price target and a "Strong Buy" consensus-suggests ASTH is well-positioned to deliver outsized returns in 2026. For investors willing to navigate the sector's regulatory and operational complexities, Astrana Health represents a high-conviction opportunity in the value-based care revolution.