ASTERUSDT Market Overview for 2025-10-28

• Aster/Tether traded lower, closing at 1.066 after opening at 1.08 with a high of 1.1 and a low of 1.061.
• Volume surged during the overnight sell-off, with a total of 32.4M ASTER traded, and turnover of ~$35.4M.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential near-term support at 1.06–1.07.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the early morning, followed by a break below the lower band and a sharp decline.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 1.092, confirming short-term bearish momentum.

Aster/Tether (ASTERUSDT) traded lower over the past 24 hours, closing at 1.066 at 12:00 ET on October 28, after opening at 1.08 the previous day. The pair reached a high of 1.1 and a low of 1.061, with a total trading volume of 32.37M ASTER and a notional turnover of $35.43M. The move below key psychological resistance levels and the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern suggest a consolidation phase is underway.

The price action reveals a clear breakdown from the prior bullish trend, with RSI declining into oversold territory (~25) and MACD bars turning negative. Short-term support appears to be forming around 1.06–1.07, with a potential test of the 1.055 Fibonacci retracement level ahead. Bollinger Bands constricted significantly in the early morning hours before a sharp expansion and bearish break. Volatility is elevated, and the recent divergence between volume and price (higher volume with lower prices) reinforces the bearish sentiment.

Key support levels are now positioned at 1.065 (50% Fibonacci from the 1.061–1.091 swing), 1.055 (61.8%), and 1.045 (200-day MA estimate). Resistance is likely to remain weak for now, with the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart now below price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 1.083–1.086 range may see retesting, particularly if the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA to signal a potential bounce.

MACD has turned negative with bearish divergence, and RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting potential short-covering or a rebound. However, the 1.06–1.07 range could see renewed bearish pressure if volume remains strong. A breakout above 1.085 could signal a reversal, but with Bollinger Bands stretched and RSI near oversold levels, a retest of key support levels is likely. Investors should watch for a break below 1.065 as a confirmation of further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the clear bearish engulfing pattern at 1.092 and the subsequent breakdown below key support levels, a backtest based on candlestick pattern recognition could be valuable in assessing potential trade signals for ASTERUSDT. A strategy that triggers a sell on confirmed bearish engulfing patterns and a buy on confirmed bullish engulfing patterns could be evaluated for performance over a historical window.

However, retrieving valid engulfing pattern signals is currently challenging, likely due to data limitations or format issues. To proceed effectively, one of the following options is recommended:
A. Double-check the ticker symbol for any discrepancies (e.g., exchange suffixes or typos).
B. Provide an alternative ticker with accessible candlestick pattern data.
C. Supply manual entry/exit dates for the backtest if pattern-based signals are not available.
D. Generate signals internally from raw OHLC data, though this may require pulling the full price history first.

Once valid signals are obtained, a buy-on-bullish / sell-on-bearish backtest can be executed immediately to evaluate the viability of pattern-based trading on ASTERUSDT.