Astera (ALAB) Surges 9.00% on Four-Day Rally as Technical Indicators Signal Overbought Conditions and Potential Pullback Risks

Astera (ALAB) has surged 9.00% in the latest session, extending a four-day rally with a cumulative gain of 22.95%. This sharp momentum suggests strong short-term bullish pressure, but technical indicators and price structure must be evaluated to assess sustainability and potential reversals.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action forms a series of higher highs and higher lows, with the most recent session’s close at $175.74 confirming a bullish breakout above prior resistance near $165. Key support levels emerge at $142.94 (December 2nd low) and $131.42 (November 21st low), while critical resistance aligns with the December 1st high of $173.204. A potential bearish signal would occur if the price fails to hold above $161.23 (December 5th close), triggering a retest of the $142.94 support zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. $155–$160 range) is currently below the 200-day MA (~$135–$140), indicating a broader bullish divergence as the short-term trend outpaces the long-term. The 100-day MA (~$150–$155) acts as a dynamic support. A crossover of the 50-day above the 200-day would confirm a stronger uptrend, but for now, the price remains within a 30% range above the 200-day MA, suggesting a continuation of the rally is probable.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has expanded positively over the past four days, reflecting accelerating momentum, while the KDJ (Stochastic) indicator shows overbought conditions (K=85, D=75). This suggests exhaustion in the short-term rally, with a potential pullback to the $161.23–$165.19 range likely. A bearish crossover in the KDJ could precede a correction, but the MACD’s rising trend implies a retest of key resistance levels rather than a full reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded sharply, with the price near the upper band at $175.74. The 20-day Bollinger Band width has widened by ~25% from mid-November levels, indicating heightened trading activity. A breakdown below the middle band (~$160–$165) would signal increased risk of a mean reversion to the $142.94–$152.51 range.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged on the recent rally, with the past four sessions averaging ~6.5M shares traded daily versus ~4.5M in the prior month. This volume surge validates the price strength but also raises the probability of a near-term consolidation phase. A decline in volume during an upward move could signal waning momentum, though current levels align with the breakout pattern.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI stands at ~72–75, entering overbought territory. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it highlights the risk of a pullback to the 50–60 RSI range (~$152–$162 price zone). A sustained close below 60 would increase bearish bias, but the RSI’s divergence from the MACD suggests the uptrend may persist despite overbought conditions.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels from the November 1st low ($65.31) to the December 8th high ($176.65) include 61.8% at $132.50 and 50% at $121.00. The current price near $175.74 aligns with the 100% extension level, suggesting a potential continuation of the trend if the $161.23 support holds. A breakdown below $142.94 would target the 61.8% retracement zone.
Confluence and Divergences
Strong alignment exists between the bullish candlestick pattern, expanding Bollinger Bands, and rising MACD, all supporting continuation. However, the overbought RSI and KDJ indicators create a divergence, signaling caution. The most critical confluence point is the $161.23–$165.19 range, where a failure to hold could trigger a retest of the $142.94 support.