Aster's Strategic Buybacks and Deflationary Impact: A Catalyst for Breaking the $1.17 Resistance?

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, strategic tokenomics often serve as the linchpin for long-term value creation. Aster (ASTER), a BNB Chain-based decentralized derivatives platform, has embarked on an aggressive deflationary campaign through token buybacks and airdrops, aiming to catalyze a breakout above the critical $1.17 resistance level. This analysis examines how these mechanisms-coupled with evolving market sentiment and technical indicators-could reshape ASTER's trajectory in the coming months.

Deflationary Mechanics: Burning the Path to Scarcity

Aster's buyback program has accelerated in recent weeks, with the official buyback address (0xe30) repurchasing 25.5 million ASTER tokens since its inception, averaging 2.76 million tokens daily, according to LookOnChain. The latest phase, S3, allocates 50% of repurchased tokens to permanent burns, reducing circulating supply by 18 million tokens to date, as reported by AmbCrypto. This dual approach-burning half while airdropping the other half to long-term holders-creates a balance between scarcity and community retention. By tightening the market float, the protocol aims to counter bearish pressure and incentivize sustained holding, a strategy that has historically supported tokens like BNB and MATIC during deflationary cycles, as noted in a Blockonomi report.

The financial commitment to these buybacks has also intensified. As of October 29, 2025, Aster increased its buyback rate by 50% to $7,500 per minute, spending $39 million to acquire 37.7 million tokens in a single 24-hour period, according to AmbCrypto. This aggressive pace, funded by up to 80% of trading fees, as detailed in a Coinotag article, signals a prioritization of token value over short-term liquidity, a move that could resonate with investors seeking projects with clear utility and governance alignment.

Market Sentiment: Accumulation Amid Neutral Price Action

Despite ASTER's price hovering near $0.90, on-chain data reveals a divergence between short-term stability and long-term bullish positioning. Derivatives traders maintain a 77% long position ratio, reflecting cautious optimism about future price recovery, according to Coinotag. Meanwhile, spot netflow has turned negative at -$8.04 million, indicating accumulation by holders rather than exchange deposits-a sign of strategic buying, as noted in AmbCrypto.

The recent endorsement by Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, who acquired nearly 2 million ASTER tokens, further bolsters confidence, as reported by Coinotag. Additionally, Coinbase's inclusion of ASTER in its listing roadmap-though conditional on regulatory compliance-has spurred a 3.51% price surge to $1.04 in 24 hours, according to TradingView. These developments suggest that institutional and retail sentiment is gradually shifting toward ASTER as a viable play in the decentralized derivatives space.

Technical Analysis: Testing the $1.17 Threshold

The $1.17 resistance level has emerged as a pivotal psychological barrier for ASTER. Recent price action saw the token surge 11.36% to a local high of $1.16 before retreating to $1.11, with trading volume spiking 90% to $667 million, according to AmbCrypto. This volatility underscores the level's significance, as bulls must now defend the $1 support zone to maintain upward momentum.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Stochastic Momentum Index climbed to 18, signaling buyer dominance, as reported by AmbCrypto, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and On-Balance Volume (OBV) remain under bearish pressure, as noted in a Coinotag article. However, the Long/Short Ratio on perpetual contracts has reached 3.83, with 79.28% of positions long-a bullish signal that aligns with the deflationary narrative, according to AmbCrypto. If ASTER sustains above $1, the path to $1.17 becomes more viable, with price prediction models forecasting a potential $1.17 target by September 2026, according to Bitget.

The Road Ahead: Catalysts and Risks

Aster's deflationary strategy is not without risks. The current price stability at $0.90 suggests that market participants are awaiting catalysts-such as the S3 airdrop or Coinbase listing-to validate the token's intrinsic value. Additionally, the broader crypto market's volatility could amplify short-term swings, testing the resolve of both the protocol and its holders.

However, the combination of strategic buybacks, airdrop-driven loyalty, and improved DEX functionality (e.g., tick size adjustments for ARUSDT perpetual contracts, as reported by Cryptopolitan) positions ASTER to capitalize on renewed demand. If the $1.17 resistance breaks, the token could follow a trajectory similar to projects like Worldcoin (WLD), which saw 170% growth in active addresses amid deflationary tailwinds, as noted in a LiveBitcoinNews report.

Conclusion

Aster's deflationary buyback program represents a calculated effort to align tokenomics with long-term value. By reducing supply, rewarding holders, and leveraging institutional endorsements, the project has created a compelling case for a $1.17 breakout. While technical indicators remain mixed, the accumulation patterns and bullish positioning suggest that the next few weeks-particularly the S3 phase's conclusion on November 9-could be decisive. Investors should monitor the interplay between buyback velocity, on-chain metrics, and broader market sentiment to gauge ASTER's potential as a deflationary-driven success story.