ASTER's Potential 80% Price Spike and Technical Setup: A Battle Between Reversal Patterns and Bearish Momentum

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of contradictions, and Aster (ASTER) is no exception. As of October 29, 2025, the token sits at a critical juncture, caught between a technically compelling reversal pattern and a broader bearish narrative. This article dissects the conflicting signals-focusing on the falling wedge formation, momentum shifts, and on-chain metrics-to assess whether ASTER can deliver the rumored 80% price spike or succumb to deeper bearish pressures.

Technical Reversal Patterns: A Glimmer of Hope

ASTER's price action has formed a falling wedge pattern near $0.97, a classic technical reversal signal. This pattern, characterized by converging descending and ascending trendlines, suggests a potential breakout to the upside if the price stabilizes above $0.97. Historical data indicates that such patterns often precede trend reversals, particularly when accompanied by declining sell-side volume-a condition currently observed in ASTER's trading activity, according to a CryptoNewsLand analysis CryptoNewsLand analysis.

The critical support level at $0.97 acts as a psychological and technical fulcrum. A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward $1.1966, with a secondary target at $2.2791 if bullish momentum persists into November, as the CryptoNewsLand analysis notes. Analyst EmijoapTurbo has emphasized that falling wedges, when validated by volume confirmation, have historically provided reliable signals for trend reversals in volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, per the CryptoNewsLand piece.

Momentum Shifts: The Bearish Undercurrent

While the falling wedge offers a bullish narrative, broader momentum indicators tell a different story. ASTER has experienced a 60% decline from its all-time high, with recent on-chain metrics exacerbating concerns. Total Value Locked (TVL) outflows of $326 million and a collapse in perpetual trading volume to $78 million signal waning user engagement and liquidity, according to a Coinotag report Coinotag report.

Technical indicators like the MACD death cross and Aroon Down readings above 80% reinforce the bearish bias, suggesting prolonged downside risk. The On Balance Volume (OBV) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) also reflect sustained sell pressure, with OBV failing to confirm recent price rallies, as noted in Coinotag coverage Coinotag coverage. These metrics highlight a market struggling to find buyers, even as the falling wedge pattern implies a potential reversal.

Complicating matters further is the token buyback program announced on October 29, 2025. While designed to reduce circulating supply and stabilize price, the initiative has yet to generate meaningful bullish momentum. ASTER remains trading near $0.90, far below the wedge's key support level, according to the Coinotag coverage.

Risk-Reward Analysis: A High-Stakes Game

The potential 80% price spike hinges on two critical factors:
1. Volume Confirmation: A breakout above $0.97 must be accompanied by a surge in buying volume to validate the reversal.
2. Market Sentiment: Broader DeFi sector weakness and TVL outflows could undermine ASTER's technical setup, even if the wedge pattern succeeds.

Investors must weigh the risk of a false breakout against the possibility of a sustained rally. If ASTER fails to hold above $0.97, the next support levels at $0.9245 and $0.8450 could trigger further declines, as the CryptoNewsLand analysis warns. Conversely, a successful breakout with strong volume could reignite institutional interest, particularly if the buyback program gains traction.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

ASTER's technical chart presents a compelling case for a reversal, but the broader market environment remains a wildcard. The falling wedge offers a clear roadmap for a potential 80% price spike, yet bearish momentum indicators and on-chain outflows suggest caution. For risk-tolerant investors, a strategic entry near $0.97 with tight stop-loss orders below $0.8450 could capture upside potential while mitigating downside risk. However, until ASTER demonstrates sustained volume-driven strength above $0.97, the bearish narrative cannot be dismissed.