Aster (ASTER), a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX) platform, has seen its price plummet in recent days amid bearish market sentiment and technical indicators pointing to further declines. After surging 129.22% in the past month, the token now trades at $1.29, down 17.91% in 24 hours and 23.12% below its October 16, 2025 price prediction of $1.05, according to CoinCodex. The decline has been exacerbated by a broader crypto market downturn, with the total crypto market cap falling 19.93% over the same period.

The recent sell-off intensified following DeFiLlama's delisting of Aster's perpetual futures, citing concerns over potentially manipulated trading volumes. This move has raised doubts about the authenticity of Aster's reported $60B+ daily volume, triggering a 10.22% drop in 24 hours to $1.83, as highlighted by CoinPedia. Influencer Crypto General described the volatility as a "shakeout" to pressure weak hands, though the move has also sparked fears of a liquidity crisis as the October 14 Genesis airdrop looms.
Technical analysis reinforces the bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for
sits at 29.25, indicating oversold conditions, while key support levels at $1.01 and $0.685308 are now in focus, according to a CoinPedia forecast. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has turned negative, signaling outflows as investors liquidate positions. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index remains at 27 (Fear), reflecting widespread pessimism.Compounding the bearish pressure is the delisting controversy. DeFiLlama's founder, 0xngmi, highlighted that Aster's trading volume closely mirrors CEX perpetual futures data, fueling accusations of wash trading. On-chain data shows whale wallets holding over $1 million in ASTER reduced their holdings by 12%, while "smart money" investors cut exposure by 37%. This exodus has pushed the price below critical support levels, with further declines to $1.7119 now at risk.
Looking ahead, Aster's price trajectory will hinge on its ability to manage token unlocks and regulatory scrutiny. The Season 2 airdrop, which unlocks 4% of the supply (320M ASTER), could trigger additional sell pressure unless vesting rules stabilize distribution, per a Gate report. Meanwhile, regulatory risks persist as the SEC investigates allegations of wash trading and the platform's dark pool operations.
Despite the near-term challenges, long-term forecasts remain cautiously optimistic. CoinPedia projects ASTER could average $1.383 in 2025, with a potential peak of $2.74 if adoption accelerates. However, bulls must first defend the $1.48 resistance level to invalidate the bearish scenario. A rebound above $1.63 could reignite bullish momentum, but until trust in data transparency is restored, volatility and uncertainty are likely to persist.
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