Aster's L1 Testnet: A $28B Volume Bet or a Costly Infrastructure Gamble?

The market Aster is targeting is massive and recovering fast. In early February 2025, daily volume on decentralized perpetual futures exchanges hit a record $70 billion, signaling a powerful revival from the prior downturn and underscoring the scale of capital migrating to on-chain derivatives.

Hyperliquid currently sets the benchmark with a 24-hour trading volume of $28.4 billion. This figure, which surged over 100% in a single day, establishes the high bar Aster must beat to capture meaningful market share in this competitive arena.

The entire market is driven by perpetual futures contracts, which allow 24/7 leveraged trading without expiration dates. Traders maintain positions indefinitely by paying funding rates, a structure that gained massive traction in 2025 as the sector's cumulative volume nearly tripled to over $12 trillion.

The Infrastructure Cost: Capital Efficiency vs. Expenditure

Launching a custom L1 blockchain is a major capital expenditure that shifts focus from pure trading growth to infrastructure development. Aster's move to a dedicated network represents a significant financial bet, diverting resources from liquidity incentives or marketing to build and maintain its own execution layer.

The goal is clear: superior execution speed and capital efficiency to attract high-frequency traders away from general-purpose chains. By designing a network optimized for derivatives from the base layer, Aster aims to offer faster finality, predictable execution, and features like privacy via zero-knowledge proofs to mitigate front-running risks.

This strategy mirrors Hyperliquid's path, indicating a costly arms race for control over on-chain derivatives infrastructure. Both platforms are building purpose-built chains, a trend driven by the need to handle the sector's massive throughput demands, which saw monthly volume cross $1 trillion for three consecutive months in late 2025.

Catalysts and Risks: The Q1 2026 Test

The primary catalyst is the planned mainnet launch in Q1 2026. Success hinges on delivering promised features like fiat currency on-ramps and a developer-friendly codebase. This launch must demonstrate tangible advantages over existing multi-chain operations to justify the infrastructure shift.

A major risk is execution failure. If the L1 cannot handle the sector's massive throughput demands or offers no clear edge in speed and capital efficiency, Aster risks losing its current user base. The platform's 24-hour volume of $41.7 million shows its current scale, but a decline post-testnet would signal user attrition.

Watch the 24h trading volume trend on Aster's current multi-chain platform after the testnet phase. A sustained drop would undermine the narrative that a dedicated chain is necessary for growth, turning a strategic bet into a costly distraction.