AST SpaceMobile Surges 8.00% on Bullish Continuation Pattern, Strong Volume and Broken Resistance

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has surged 8.00% in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of gains with a cumulative rise of 16.78%. This sharp upward movement suggests strong short-term bullish momentum, potentially driven by positive sentiment or catalysts. The price action warrants a detailed technical analysis to assess the sustainability of this rally and potential reversal points.
Candlestick Theory
The recent two-day rally has produced a bullish continuation pattern, characterized by strong volume and a break above prior resistance levels. Key support levels are evident around the $52.61 (December 1 close) and $55.51 (November 25 close), while resistance appears at $57.86 (December 2 high) and $61.88 (December 3 high). A break above $61.88 could target the next resistance near $64.49 (November 19 high). Conversely, a pullback below $56.89 (December 2 close) might test $53.08 (December 2 low), with further support at $52.2 (December 1 low).

The formation of a "Bullish Engulfing" pattern on the second day of the rally reinforces the potential for continued upward movement.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum aligns with the 50-day moving average, which is currently ascending and positioned above the 100-day and 200-day averages. The 50-day line crossing above the 100-day in late November signaled a bullish crossover, reinforcing the uptrend. The 200-day average, however, remains below the current price, suggesting a medium-term bull market. If the price sustains above the 50-day line (~$55.50), it may indicate a continuation of the rally. A break below the 100-day average (~$57.00) could trigger a re-evaluation of the trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has expanded positively in recent sessions, reflecting growing bullish momentum. The MACD line crossing above the signal line in late November confirmed a bullish bias, which remains intact. The KDJ oscillator shows %K and %D converging at overbought territory (above 80), suggesting a potential short-term correction. However, %K remaining above %D indicates that the uptrend may persist unless a bearish crossover occurs. Divergence between price and KDJ is not currently evident, reducing the risk of an immediate reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has increased sharply, with the price reaching the upper Bollinger Band on December 3. This contraction-expansion pattern suggests a potential continuation of the trend, as prices often extend beyond the bands during strong moves. The 20-day standard deviation has widened, indicating heightened trading activity. If the price retreats toward the middle band (~$59.00), it may find temporary support, but a sustained break above the upper band could signal a new phase of expansion.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged significantly in recent sessions, validating the price increase. The December 3 session saw a volume of 12.03 million shares, a 138% increase from the prior day, which aligns with the price break. High volume during upward moves typically indicates strong buyer participation. However, if volume declines while the price continues to rise, it may signal weakening momentum. The current volume-price alignment supports the likelihood of a sustained rally.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI has entered overbought territory (above 70), indicating potential for a short-term pullback. A reading near 75 suggests that the rally may face profit-taking pressure. However, the RSI remains in an ascending trend, suggesting that the broader uptrend is intact. A drop below 60 would indicate weakening momentum, while a retest of the 70 level could confirm the continuation of the trend.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels derived from the November 20 high ($61.60) and September 9 low ($36.08) include 38.2% at $49.77, 50% at $48.84, and 61.8% at $47.90. The current price action is testing the 23.6% retracement level ($57.20), which has historically acted as support. A break above the 61.8% level ($53.80) could target the 78.6% level ($60.80), aligning with recent highs.
Confluence and Divergences
The strongest confluence occurs at the intersection of the 50-day moving average (~$55.50), Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level ($57.20), and Bollinger Band middle band (~$59.00), all of which could act as dynamic support. The MACD and KDJ indicators currently align with the bullish trend, but the overbought RSI and stretched Bollinger Bands suggest caution. Divergences are not yet evident, but a divergence between price and KDJ could signal an impending correction.

Probabilistic Outlook
The technical indicators collectively suggest a high probability of continued upward momentum in the short term, supported by strong volume and bullish patterns. However, the overbought RSI and stretched Bollinger Bands imply that a pullback is likely if the price fails to break above $61.88. Traders should monitor the 50-day moving average and Fibonacci levels for potential entry or exit points, while keeping an eye on volume trends for confirmation of trend sustainability.