AST SpaceMobile Surges 7.07% as Bullish Momentum Gains Traction on Technical Indicators

Candlestick Theory

AST SpaceMobile’s recent 7.07% gain over two sessions, coupled with a closing price of $55, suggests bullish momentum. The candlestick pattern shows a strong white (up) body, indicating buying pressure. Key support levels can be identified at prior swing lows, such as $49.31 (November 21) and $48.70 (October 23), while resistance appears at $58.01 (November 19) and $61.40 (November 14). A potential bearish reversal signal emerges if the price closes below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $53.17, which aligns with recent volatility.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately $51.50) is above the 200-day MA ($47.70), suggesting a bullish bias in the intermediate term. However, the 200-day MA has acted as a dynamic support level multiple times, most recently in early November. The 100-day MA ($49.80) currently lies below the 50-day MA, reinforcing the short-term uptrend. A breakdown below the 50-day MA would signal a shift to bearish territory, while a sustained close above $58.01 could validate a longer-term trend reversal.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows a narrowing divergence, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential bullish momentum. The KDJ (Stochastic oscillator) indicates overbought conditions, with the %K line at 82 and %D at 78, signaling a possible near-term correction. However, the KDJ’s failure to form a bearish crossover (e.g., %K dipping below %D) suggests the uptrend may persist. Combined with the MACD, this confluence points to a continuation of the rally, though traders should monitor for a bearish crossover as a sell signal.

Bollinger Bands

The price has recently touched the upper Bollinger Band ($55.49), indicating high volatility. Band expansion from late October to early November suggests increased buying activity, while the current contraction implies a potential consolidation phase. A break above the upper band could signal a new bullish phase, whereas a drop below the lower band ($49.31) would suggest a bearish shift. The 20-period standard deviation (approximately $3.00) further supports the idea that the stock is in a high-volatility phase.

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Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, with the past two sessions averaging 10.18 million shares, a 20% increase from the prior week. This validates the price action’s strength and suggests institutional buying. However, the volume has not yet reached the levels seen during the October 2–3, 2025, surge (27.5 million shares), which accompanied a 16.19% gain. A drop in volume during future rallies may indicate waning momentum, while sustained high volume could confirm a breakout.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has reached 72, entering overbought territory, which historically suggests a potential pullback. However, given the stock’s recent aggressive move (8.48% in two days), the RSI’s overbought condition may persist for several sessions. A close below 70 would signal a bearish signal, but this must be validated by price action. The RSI’s 14-day average of 68 indicates that the current level is a marginal overbought condition, not an extreme.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels between the October 1, 2025, high of $56.94 and the September 25, 2025, low of $49.39 include 38.2% ($53.17), 50% ($53.17), and 61.8% ($51.50). The stock’s current price of $55 is above the 50% retracement level, suggesting a potential continuation of the uptrend. A breakdown below $51.50 would target the 61.8% level ($50.70) as a critical support zone.

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Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based backtest from 2022 to 2025 highlights critical limitations in relying solely on overbought thresholds. For instance, the 7.07% gain on November 24, 2025, pushed the RSI above 70, triggering a sell signal. However, historical context shows that similar overbought conditions in 2022 (e.g., the July 28, 2022, 6.3% jump following the BlueWalker 3 satellite launch) led to missed opportunities as the stock continued rising. This underscores the need to incorporate additional indicators like moving averages or Fibonacci levels to avoid premature exits. Furthermore, the strategy’s neglect of macroeconomic factors—such as the FCC’s direct-to-phone satellite license approval in 2025—oversimplifies AST SpaceMobile’s growth narrative. A refined approach would blend RSI signals with volume analysis and news events to better align with the company’s long-term trajectory.

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