AST SpaceMobile Surges 5.97% Amid Legal Scrutiny and Analyst Volatility – What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) surges 5.97% intraday to $100.90, breaking above its 52-week high of $102.79.
• Pomerantz LLP launches securities fraud investigation, while Scotiabank downgrades ASTS to Sell with a $45.60 price target.
• Institutional buyers boost holdings by 105.1%, but insiders offload 91.54% of their shares in a $159M+ sale.
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts trade with implied volatility ratios above 75%, including ASTS20260123P85 (52.51% price change).

AST SpaceMobile’s stock is on a rollercoaster ride as legal investigations, analyst downgrades, and insider selling collide with institutional buying and speculative options activity. The $100.90 intraday high marks a 5.97% surge from Thursday’s open, but the path to this rally is anything but straightforward. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and a 6.47% turnover rate, the market is grappling with conflicting signals from corporate governance risks, competitive pressures, and technical momentum.

Legal Scrutiny and Analyst Downgrades Ignite Volatility
ASTS’s 5.97% intraday rally follows a 12.06% plunge on January 7, 2026, after Scotiabank downgraded the stock to Sell, citing competition from SpaceX’s Starlink and delayed satellite launches. The recent surge coincides with Pomerantz LLP’s securities fraud investigation, which has heightened investor anxiety. While the downgrade triggered a sharp selloff, the subsequent rebound suggests short-term traders are betting on a potential bounce amid mixed fundamentals. Institutional buyers added $1.334M in shares, but insider selling of $164M+ underscores skepticism about ASTS’s ability to meet its ambitious satellite deployment timeline.

Satellite Communications Sector Mixed as Viasat Gains 4.7%
The Satellite Communications sector remains fragmented, with Viasat (VSAT) rising 4.7% on the day, outperforming ASTS’s 5.97% rally. VSAT’s stronger performance highlights investor preference for established players in a competitive landscape dominated by SpaceX’s Starlink. ASTS’s aggressive expansion into low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite broadband faces skepticism from analysts, who question its ability to match Starlink’s scale and cost efficiency. While ASTS’s 52-week high of $102.79 suggests short-term optimism, the sector’s broader challenges—slow adoption, high capital expenditures, and regulatory hurdles—loom large.

Options Frenzy and Technicals Signal High-Risk, High-Reward Setup
• MACD: 6.93 (above signal line 5.72), RSI: 56.21 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $105.20 (upper), $82.26 (middle), $59.31 (lower)
• 200D MA: $51.51 (far below current price), 30D MA: $78.84 (below), 100D MA: $66.27 (below)

ASTS’s technicals paint a mixed picture: the MACD crossover and RSI neutrality suggest short-term bullish momentum, but the stock remains far above its 200-day average, amplifying volatility risks. The Bollinger Bands indicate a potential pullback to the $82.26 middle band, but the 5.97% intraday surge suggests buyers are testing the $105.20 upper band. For options traders, the key is balancing leverage with liquidity. Two contracts stand out:

• ASTS20260123P85 (Put, $85 strike, 2026-01-23 expiry):
- IV Ratio: 138.52% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 124.49% (aggressive downside potential)
- Delta: -0.065 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.619 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: 53,792 (high liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.0106 (moderate sensitivity to gamma)
This put option offers asymmetric upside in a bearish scenario, with high implied volatility amplifying potential gains if ASTS breaks below $85. A 5% upside projection (to $106) yields a $21 payoff, but the high leverage ratio makes it ideal for aggressive short-term bets.

• ASTS20260123P86 (Put, $86 strike, 2026-01-23 expiry):
- IV Ratio: 77.09% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 108.43% (balanced risk/reward)
- Delta: -0.083 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0629 (slower time decay)
- Turnover: 51,559 (high liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.0125 (strong gamma sensitivity)
This contract provides a safer entry point for bearish positions, with moderate implied volatility and high gamma ensuring responsiveness to price swings. A 5% upside projection (to $106) yields a $20 payoff, making it a versatile tool for hedging or speculative plays.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider ASTS20260123P85 into a bounce above $105.20, while cautious bears should eye ASTS20260123P86 for a breakdown below $86. The 5.97% intraday surge suggests momentum traders are testing the 52-week high, but the 6.47% turnover rate warns of potential profit-taking.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
The performance of ASTS after a 6% intraday surge from 2022 to now has been positive, with an average move of +23.3% following the largest single-day up moves over the past three years.

ASTS at a Crossroads: Legal Risks vs. Technical Momentum
AST SpaceMobile’s 5.97% intraday surge masks a volatile crossroads: legal investigations, analyst skepticism, and insider selling clash with institutional buying and speculative options activity. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and 6.47% turnover rate suggest a critical juncture. Traders should monitor the $105.20 Bollinger Band upper limit and the $85.60 support level (previous close). Meanwhile, Viasat’s 4.7% gain underscores sector-wide uncertainty. For ASTS, the path forward hinges on resolving the Pomerantz investigation and proving its satellite deployment timeline. Action Alert: Watch for a breakdown below $85.60 or a breakout above $105.20—either could trigger a 10%+ move in either direction.