AST SpaceMobile Surges 38.74% on Bullish Technical Indicators Golden Crossover MACD Signal Strong Uptrend

Candlestick Theory

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has exhibited a strong bullish momentum over the past four sessions, with a 38.74% rally and a 2.42% gain in the most recent session. The price action suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Key support levels are evident at the 49.08–49.39 range (October 15–25), while resistance has shifted to the 64.1–68.8 range (October 2–3). A breakdown below the 49.08 level could trigger a retest of the 45.22–46.91 consolidation zone (September 19–October 1), whereas a sustained close above 68.8 may indicate a new wave of buying pressure.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately 49.50 as of October 3) has been decisively breached to the upside, aligning with the 100-day (49.00) and 200-day (45.50) averages to form a bullish "golden crossover" configuration. This confluence suggests a medium-term bullish trend, with the 50-day MA acting as a dynamic support. However, the 200-day MA remains a critical psychological threshold; a retest of this level (around 45.50) could reinforce its role as a floor for further accumulation.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a recent expansion, with the line crossing above the signal line, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator (Stochastic) is currently in overbought territory, with %K at 85 and %D at 82, raising caution about short-term exhaustion. While the MACD suggests a continuation of the trend, the KDJ divergence (price rising while %K/%D flatten) hints at potential near-term profit-taking. Traders may watch for a bearish crossover in the KDJ to confirm a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with ASTS trading near the upper band (68.8) on October 3. This suggests a high-risk environment where a reversion to the mean (around the 20-day MA of 59.50) could occur. The narrow band contraction observed on September 29–October 1 (volatility range of 47.82–52.38) preceded the recent breakout, indicating that the current expansion may signal a continuation of the trend rather than a reversal.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the rally, peaking at 16.7 million shares on October 3, validating the price strength. However, the volume-to-price ratio (112.4 million in turnover) suggests that while buying pressure is robust, further confirmation is needed for sustainability. A decline in volume during follow-through rallies could signal weakening conviction, whereas a sustained volume surge above 15 million shares per session would reinforce the bullish case.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI is currently at 72, entering overbought territory. While this does not inherently signal a reversal—especially in a strong trend—it does suggest caution. Historical context shows the RSI frequently fluctuating between 60–80 during the October 2–3 surge, indicating a high-probability scenario for a near-term correction. A drop below 60 would align with the 50–55 support zone, offering a potential entry point for trend-followers.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent low (47.5 on September 30) to the high (68.8 on October 3) are as follows:

- 23.6% retracement: 62.5

- 38.2% retracement: 57.8

- 50% retracement: 58.15

- 61.8% retracement: 53.5

The 57.8–58.15 range is critical; a retest here could confirm the validity of the uptrend before a potential resumption.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of exiting positions when RSI exceeds 70 (as applied to ASTS) has historically underperformed, with a 21.33% return versus the benchmark’s 36.98% from 2022 to 2025. This aligns with the current analysis: ASTS’s RSI is at 72, yet the trend remains intact, suggesting that rigid overbought thresholds may prematurely exit positions in strong trends. A modified approach—combining RSI with moving average crossovers (e.g., 50-day above 200-day) or volume confirmation—could improve results. For ASTS, this would mean holding through overbought RSI levels if the 50-day MA and volume remain supportive.