AST SpaceMobile Surges 13.93% on Two-Day Rally as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has surged 7.85% in the latest session, extending a two-day rally with a cumulative gain of 13.93%. This sharp move suggests strong short-term bullish momentum, but technical analysis reveals nuanced dynamics across multiple frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action forms a bullish engulfing pattern, with the last two sessions closing near their highs, indicating aggressive buying pressure. Key resistance appears at $97.67 (Jan 9 high), while critical support levels are identified at $85.73 (Jan 7 low) and $72.63 (Dec 31 low). A break above $97.67 could target the next resistance at $101.68 (Jan 9 high), whereas a pullback below $85.73 may test the $72.63 level, which coincides with the 200-day moving average.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approx. $75–$80) is well below the current price, confirming a short-term bullish trend. The 200-day MA (~$65–$70) remains a foundational support. The 100-day MA (~$70–$75) aligns with the 200-day, suggesting a confluence of long-term support. Price above both the 50- and 100-day MAs reinforces the uptrend, but a close below the 50-day MA would signal weakening momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded positively, with the line above the signal line, supporting a bullish bias. However, the KDJ stochastic oscillator shows overbought conditions (K ~85, D ~75), suggesting potential exhaustion. A divergence between the KDJ and price—such as lower highs in K despite rising prices—could foreshadow a correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with price near the upper band (~$95–$100), indicating overbought territory. The bands’ recent contraction in late December to early January preceded the current breakout, aligning with the sharp rally. A retest of the lower band (~$80–$85) may occur before the trend resumes.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged on the recent rally, with 24.35 million shares traded on Jan 9 (up from ~10–15 million in prior sessions). This volume validates the price strength, but a subsequent tapering could signal waning momentum. The recent volume spikes align with the MACD’s positive divergence, reinforcing the uptrend’s credibility.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is in overbought territory (~70–75), with a sharp upward spike. While this suggests potential for a near-term pullback, the RSI’s failure to form lower lows amid rising prices indicates a strong trend. A close below 50 would invalidate the bullish case, while a sustained above-70 reading may prolong the rally.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high ($97.67) to the low ($52.61) include 61.8% at ~$75 and 38.2% at ~$68. The 61.8% level aligns with the 100-day MA and could act as a critical support. A break below $75 may trigger a test of the 50% retracement at ~$75, while a hold above $75 validates the bullish trend.

Confluence and Divergences
Multiple indicators concur on short-term bullish momentum, with the 50-day MA, MACD, and volume all supporting the rally. However, overbought RSI and KDJ levels highlight risks of a near-term correction. A divergence between the MACD and price (e.g., shrinking histogram) would signal weakening momentum. Conversely, a sustained close above $97.67 with expanding volume would strengthen the case for a continuation.

Probabilistic Outlook

The stock is likely to consolidate near $97.67–$100.18 before either extending the rally or correcting to test $85.73–$72.63. Traders should monitor the 50-day MA and RSI for signs of exhaustion or renewed strength. A breakout above $101.68 with rising volume may indicate a new bullish phase, while a close below $72.63 would signal a deeper correction.