AST SpaceMobile Plunges 8.6%: Insider Sales and Satellite Ambitions Collide

Summary
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) tumbles 8.6% to $71.34, its lowest since December 2025
• CTO Huiwen Yao sells 40,000 shares, sparking investor unease
• BlueBird 6 satellite launch, the company’s largest, fails to offset market jitters

AST SpaceMobile’s stock is in freefall as insider selling and operational uncertainties collide with its ambitious satellite broadband vision. The stock’s 8.6% intraday drop—its worst since the 52-week low of $17.5—has drawn sharp focus to CTO Huiwen Yao’s recent $2.94 million share sale and the broader market’s skepticism about the company’s financial health. With BlueBird 6 now in orbit, the question looms: Can ASTS’s technological milestones outweigh its liquidity and profitability challenges?

Insider Selling and Market Doubts Fuel ASTS’s Sharp Decline
AST SpaceMobile’s 8.6% intraday plunge is driven by a toxic mix of insider selling and investor skepticism. Chief Technology Officer Huiwen Yao’s $2.94 million share sale—reducing his ownership by 89.39%—has amplified fears of management’s confidence in the company’s near-term prospects. Compounding this, ASTS’s Q3 2025 results revealed a staggering $163.83M net loss and a price-to-sales ratio of 1,724.3, underscoring its precarious financial position. While the BlueBird 6 satellite launch marks a technical milestone, the market is fixated on the company’s $924.88M liabilities and its ability to sustain operations amid steep cash outflows.

Satellite Communications Sector Volatile as ASTS Tumbles
The satellite communications sector is in flux, with Viasat (VSAT) down 1.63% as investors weigh risks in the space-to-cell race. ASTS’s 8.6% drop outpaces sector peers, reflecting its unique challenges: high R&D costs, unproven commercial scalability, and regulatory scrutiny from SpaceX. While competitors like SpaceX and K2 Space raise capital for expansion, ASTS’s liquidity position—$1.14B working capital—offers some buffer but not certainty. The sector’s mixed performance highlights the tension between technological ambition and financial viability.

Options and ETFs for ASTS’s Volatile Path: A Tactical Playbook
• MACD: 3.83 (above signal line 2.48), RSI: 53.8 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $49.59–$91.07
• 200D MA: $47.63 (below current price), 30D MA: $65.98 (near-term support)

ASTS’s technicals suggest a bearish near-term bias, with key support at $65 (200D MA) and resistance at $70.33 (middle Bollinger Band). The stock’s 10.9% turnover rate and 84.8% implied volatility (IV) in options contracts highlight its volatility. For traders, the 75/80 bull call spread (expiring Feb 2026) offers a 138% max return if ASTS rebounds to $80, but the 65/70 put spread could capitalize on a breakdown below $65.

Top Options Picks:
• ASTS20260102P65 (Put):
- Strike: $65, IV: 84.76%, Delta: -0.209, Theta: -0.0776, Gamma: 0.0321, Turnover: $198.57M
- IV (high volatility), Delta (moderate sensitivity), Gamma (strong price sensitivity), Turnover (liquid).
- This put benefits from ASTS’s 5% downside scenario (to $67.77), offering a $2.27 payoff per share. Ideal for short-term bearish bets.
• ASTS20260102P68 (Put):
- Strike: $68, IV: 84.70%, Delta: -0.326, Theta: -0.0701, Gamma: 0.0403, Turnover: $57.63M
- IV (high volatility), Delta (strong sensitivity), Gamma (high price sensitivity), Turnover (liquid).
- A 5% drop to $67.77 yields a $0.23 payoff. Best for aggressive short-term bearish positions.

Action Insight: ASTS20260102P65 offers the most balanced risk/reward for a 5% downside scenario. If ASTS breaks below $65, consider the 65/70 put spread for a 138% return.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
The backtest of ASTS's performance after a -9% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating the strategy's effectiveness:

ASTS at Critical Juncture: Watch for $65 Support and Sector Catalysts
AST SpaceMobile’s 8.6% drop has exposed its vulnerabilities, but its satellite broadband vision remains a long-term catalyst. The stock’s immediate fate hinges on its ability to hold $65 (200D MA) and secure partnerships to offset losses. Viasat’s 1.6% decline underscores sector-wide caution, but ASTS’s unique position in direct-to-cell tech could attract buyers if it stabilizes. Traders should monitor the 75/80 call spread for a rebound or the 65/70 put spread for a breakdown. With 45–60 satellites planned by 2026, ASTS’s execution will determine whether this dip is a buying opportunity or a warning shot.