AST SpaceMobile Plummets 8% on Intraday Turmoil: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) plunges 7.99% to $73.84, erasing $6.43 from its opening price
• $175M stc Group prepayment agreement sparks mixed market sentiment
• Options volatility surges with 95%+ implied volatility on key puts
• Satellite sector peers like Viasat (VSAT) also under pressure

AST SpaceMobile’s stock is in freefall as investors grapple with the fallout from its landmark stc Group partnership. The $175 million prepayment agreement, initially seen as a catalyst, now faces scrutiny amid technical indicators pointing to oversold conditions and a volatile options landscape. With the stock trading near its intraday low of $73.32, the question looms: is this a buying opportunity or a warning sign?

Stc Partnership Spark Volatility Amid Earnings Anticipation
AST SpaceMobile’s sharp decline stems from a confluence of factors: the $175 million stc Group prepayment agreement, which while bullish for long-term growth, has triggered profit-taking and short-term profit-liquidation. The partnership’s $175 million prepayment, while a cash flow boost, has raised concerns about near-term execution risks and regulatory hurdles. Compounding this, the stock’s 2.75% Friday rally ahead of the selloff suggests a reversal of momentum as traders recalibrate ahead of the Nov. 10 earnings report. Analysts note the $175 million prepayment’s timing—just days before earnings—has created a tug-of-war between optimism over infrastructure commitments and skepticism about ASTS’s ability to meet Wall Street’s $21.52 million revenue forecast.

Satellite Sector Suffers as Viasat Dips 4.7%
The Satellite Communications sector is under pressure, with Viasat (VSAT) down 4.73% as investors rotate out of high-growth tech plays. ASTS’s 7.99% drop outpaces VSAT’s decline, reflecting ASTS’s unique exposure to execution risks tied to its stc partnership. While VSAT’s decline is attributed to broader market rotation, ASTS’s selloff is more directly linked to its capital-intensive satellite deployment and the $1 billion convertible note offering announced earlier this year. The sector’s mixed performance highlights divergent investor sentiment: ASTS’s ambitious but unproven commercialization path contrasts with VSAT’s more established terrestrial infrastructure focus.

Options Playbook: Puts Outperform as ASTS Tests Support
• RSI: 39.44 (oversold)
• 200-day MA: $40.14 (far below)
• MACD: -1.60 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $66.83 (lower band) vs. $73.84 (current price)

ASTS’s technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels, but the options market tells a different story. Two contracts stand out for bearish exposure: ASTS20251107P73 (put) and ASTS20251107P72 (put).

ASTS20251107P73 (Put)
• Code: ASTS20251107P73
• Strike: $73
• Expiry: 2025-11-07
• IV: 95.18% (high volatility)
• Delta: -0.44 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0326 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0481 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: $66,888
• LVR: 25.41% (high leverage)
• Payoff at 5% down: $1.67 (max(0, 73 - 70.15))
This put offers a 25%+ leverage ratio and 95% implied volatility, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakdown below $73. The moderate delta ensures it retains value even in a gradual decline.

ASTS20251107P72 (Put)
• Code: ASTS20251107P72
• Strike: $72
• Expiry: 2025-11-07
• IV: 96.42% (elevated)
• Delta: -0.39 (lower sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0608 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.0463 (responsive)
• Turnover: $259,879
• LVR: 29.72% (strong leverage)
• Payoff at 5% down: $2.67 (max(0, 72 - 70.15))
This contract’s 29.72% leverage and $259k turnover make it a liquid, high-reward play for a sharper selloff. The 96% IV suggests the market is pricing in significant downside risk.

Hook: If ASTS breaks below $72, ASTS20251107P72 offers a high-leverage bearish play with strong liquidity.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-backtest report. It summarises how AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.O) shares performed after every trading day on which the intraday low was at least 8 % below the previous-day close, during the period 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 (109 events identified).Key take-aways • 109 plunges of ≥ 8 % intraday were detected. • Average 5-day excess return over the NASDAQ Composite was roughly +2 pp; statistical significance emerged at the 2-day horizon but faded thereafter. • Win rates hovered near 50 %, indicating limited predictive power despite a modest positive drift. • No persistent edge beyond the first week was observed—returns mean-reverted toward the market. Auto-assumptions made 1. Used “previous-day close” as the reference price to compute the intraday drawdown. 2. Event window set to the standard ±30 trading days; performance table shows post-event (0–30 d) metrics. 3. Close prices chosen for measuring post-event returns. Feel free to explore the interactive charts and detailed statistics in the module above, or let me know if you’d like deeper cuts (e.g., sub-period analysis, different thresholds, or alternative holding rules).

ASTS at Crossroads: Rebound or Reassessment?
AST SpaceMobile’s 8% intraday plunge has created a critical inflection point. While the RSI’s oversold reading and Bollinger Band proximity suggest a potential rebound, the options market’s 95%+ IV on key puts indicates lingering bearish sentiment. Investors must weigh the stc partnership’s long-term potential against near-term execution risks and the $21.52 million revenue forecast. For now, ASTS20251107P73 and ASTS20251107P72 offer bearish hedges, but a rebound above $80.28 could signal renewed conviction. Watch Viasat (VSAT)’s -4.73% move for sector cues—ASTS’s path hinges on whether the stc partnership’s $175 million windfall is seen as a bridge to growth or a distraction from profitability challenges.