AST SpaceMobile Plummets 7% as BlueBird 6 Launch Delay Sparks Short-Squeeze Fears

Summary
• ASTS trades at $71.33, down 7.00% from its $76.70 previous close
• Intraday range of $70.29–$77.40 highlights sharp volatility
• Short interest remains elevated at 7.61% turnover rate
• Sector peers like Iridium Communications (IRDM) also underperform with -4.25% move
AST SpaceMobile’s stock has plunged into a freefall session, driven by a delayed BlueBird 6 satellite launch and mounting short-seller pressure. With the stock trading 7% below its opening price and a 52-week high of $102.79 now distant, investors are recalibrating expectations as the company navigates a critical inflection point in its commercialization timeline.

BlueBird 6 Launch Delay Undermines Momentum
The 5-day delay of ASTS’s next-gen BlueBird 6 satellite launch—pushed from Dec 15 to Dec 21—has triggered a sharp selloff. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) cited prolonged prelaunch activities, while ASTS confirmed the satellite was encapsulated but provided no clarity on the revised schedule. This delay exacerbates investor concerns about the company’s ability to meet its 2026 launch cadence, which is critical for scaling capacity and securing revenue from wholesale partners like AT&T and Verizon. Compounding the issue, short interest remains elevated at 7.61% turnover, with analysts warning of a potential short squeeze if the launch proceeds smoothly.

Satellite Communications Sector Mixed as Iridium Drags
The Satellite Communications sector remains volatile, with Iridium Communications (IRDM) down 4.25% and Globalstar (GSM) trading flat. ASTS’s 7% decline outpaces its peers, reflecting unique risks tied to its capital-intensive satellite deployment and high price-to-sales ratio of 124.84. While competitors like SpaceX and Viasat (VSAT) benefit from diversified revenue streams and lower valuations, ASTS’s reliance on a single satellite launch timeline makes it more susceptible to operational delays.

Options Playbook: Short-Term Bets on ASTS Volatility
• 200-day MA: $45.87 (well below current price)
• RSI: 74.87 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 3.39 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $42.16–$84.17 (current price near lower band)
• Support/Resistance: Key levels at $60.92–$61.60 (30D) and $23.09–$24.61 (200D)
ASTS’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound is likely, with RSI overbought conditions and MACD divergence pointing to exhaustion in the downtrend. The stock’s 13.56% intraday volatility and 7.61% turnover rate make it a high-risk/high-reward play. For options traders, the ASTS20251219P70 and ASTS20251219C75 contracts stand out:

• ASTS20251219P70 (Put, $70 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- IV: 107.00% (elevated but not extreme)
- Leverage Ratio: 24.04% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.4219 (sensitive to price swings)
- Theta: -0.0723 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0439 (responsive to price movement)
- Turnover: $381,733 (liquid)
This put option offers downside protection if ASTS breaks below $70.91, with a 90.62% price change ratio amplifying potential gains in a bearish scenario.

• ASTS20251219C75 (Call, $75 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- IV: 113.24% (high but justified by volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 31.62% (aggressive)
- Delta: 0.3718 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.5594 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0401 (moderate responsiveness)
- Turnover: $706,411 (high liquidity)
This call option is ideal for aggressive bulls betting on a short squeeze if the BlueBird 6 launch proceeds as planned. A 5% downside scenario (to $67.76) would yield a put payoff of $2.24 per contract, while a 5% upside (to $74.89) would net $9.89 for the call.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider ASTS20251219C75 into a bounce above $75.00, while cautious bears should monitor the $70.91 support level for a potential short squeeze.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
The backtest of ASTS's performance after a -7% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 53.92%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.12%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.94%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 25.97%, with a maximum return day at 59.

ASTS at Crossroads: Watch for $70.91 Breakdown or BlueBird 6 Catalyst
AST SpaceMobile’s 7% intraday drop underscores the fragility of its momentum, with the BlueBird 6 delay and elevated short interest creating a volatile near-term outlook. While technicals suggest a rebound is possible, the stock’s path depends on whether the Dec 21 launch proceeds smoothly and whether short sellers capitulate. Investors should closely monitor the $70.91 support level and the sector leader Iridium Communications (IRDM, -4.25%) for broader industry cues. For now, ASTS remains a high-risk/high-reward trade, with options offering asymmetric exposure to its next move.