AST SpaceMobile Plummets 7.2%: What's Behind the Selloff?

Summary
• ASTS trades at $41.96, down 7.2% from $45.22 previous close
• RSI at 36.24 signals oversold territory, MACD (-0.488) confirms bearish momentum
• Options chain sees ASTS20250912P41 (volume 564) and ASTS20250919P41 (volume 374) as top put contracts

AST SpaceMobile’s intraday plunge has triggered a sharp correction, with the stock trading near its 52-week low of $17.5. The move coincides with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and oversold RSI levels, while options data reveals aggressive short-term bearish positioning. Traders are now scrutinizing key support levels and volatility metrics to gauge the depth of this selloff.

Bearish Reversal and Oversold RSI Signal Short-Term Weakness
The 7.2% intraday drop in ASTS reflects a classic bearish reversal pattern, with the stock breaking below its 30-day moving average of $50.12 and testing the lower Bollinger Band at $43.96. The RSI at 36.24 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD (-0.488) remains below its signal line (-0.35), confirming bearish momentum. The bearish engulfing candlestick pattern—where the morning high of $45.72 is fully consumed by the intraday low of $41.05—suggests a breakdown in short-term buying pressure. This technical confluence has triggered stop-loss orders and amplified selling pressure. Compounding the issue, ASTS reported a quarterly loss of ($0.41) EPS, missing estimates by $0.22, and revenue of $1.16 million against a forecast of $6.37 million. Insider selling, including a 4.79% reduction in CFO Andrew Johnson’s holdings, further eroded confidence.

Satellite Communications Sector Mixed as Viasat Holds Steady
The Satellite Communications sector remains fragmented, with Viasat (VSAT) trading flat at +0.15% intraday. While ASTS’s selloff is driven by standalone technicals, the sector’s lack of directional bias underscores ASTS’s vulnerability to short-term volatility. Viasat’s stability highlights the divergence between ASTS’s bearish reversal and broader sector resilience.

Bearish Options Playbook: ASTS20250912P41 and ASTS20250919P41 for Short-Term Exposure
• 200-day average: $31.82 (well below current price)
• RSI: 36.24 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.488 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: 43.96 (lower), 51.97 (upper)
• 30D support/resistance: 44.95–45.25 (key near-term pivot)
• 200D support/resistance: 22.80–23.65 (long-term floor)

The selloff has positioned ASTS near critical technical levels, with the lower Bollinger Band at $43.96 and 30D support at $44.95 acting as immediate barriers. While the RSI suggests oversold conditions, the bearish engulfing pattern and MACD divergence indicate further downside risk. Sector leader Viasat (VSAT) remains relatively stable (-0.33% intraday), but ASTS’s standalone technicals demand focus. Traders should monitor the 43.96 support and 45.25 resistance for directional bias. Watch for a breakdown below $43.96 or a rejection above $45.25 to confirm the next move.

Top Put Contracts:
• ASTS20250912P41
- Strike: $41, Expiry: 2025-09-12
- IV: 83.64% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.402 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0313 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0702 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $84,442 (liquid)
- Leverage: 24.53% (aggressive)
- Payoff at 5% downside (ST= $39.94): $1.06 per contract
- Why it stands out: High gamma and IV make this put ideal for capitalizing on a sharp drop below $41.58.
• ASTS20250919P41
- Strike: $41, Expiry: 2025-09-19
- IV: 86.66% (elevated)
- Delta: -0.410 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0405 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0511 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $77,574 (liquid)
- Leverage: 16.71% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% downside (ST= $39.94): $1.06 per contract
- Why it stands out: Longer expiry and high IV offer more time for the selloff to materialize, with strong gamma for price sensitivity.

If $43.96 breaks, ASTS20250912P41 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bears may consider ASTS20250919P41 into a test of the 200D support at $23.65.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance

Act Now: ASTS at Pivotal Support Level—What to Watch
The selloff has positioned ASTS near critical technical levels, with the lower Bollinger Band at $43.96 and 30D support at $44.95 acting as immediate barriers. While the RSI suggests oversold conditions, the bearish engulfing pattern and MACD divergence indicate further downside risk. Sector leader Viasat (VSAT) remains relatively stable (-0.33% intraday), but ASTS’s standalone technicals demand focus. Traders should monitor the 43.96 support and 45.25 resistance for directional bias. Watch for a breakdown below $43.96 or a rejection above $45.25 to confirm the next move. Act now: If $43.96 breaks, ASTS20250912P41 offers short-side potential.