AST SpaceMobile Plummets 6.4% Amid BlueBird 6 Delays and Short-Squeeze Jitters

Summary
• ASTS trades at $71.79, down 6.4% from its $76.88 open
• BlueBird 6 satellite launch delayed to Dec. 21, sparking near-term uncertainty
• Short interest remains elevated at 21% peak, with analysts warning of valuation risks
• RSI at 74.87 signals overbought conditions, while Bollinger Bands show a wide $42.16–$84.17 range

AST SpaceMobile’s stock has swung wildly intraday, dropping to $70.29 lows amid delays in its next-gen satellite launch and persistent short-seller pressure. The stock’s 6.4% decline reflects a mix of technical exhaustion and fundamental skepticism, as analysts debate whether its $124.84 price-to-sales ratio is sustainable. With BlueBird 6’s delayed launch and a $71.51 average analyst price target looming, the path forward hinges on execution risks and short-covering dynamics.

BlueBird 6 Launch Delay and Short-Squeeze Jitters Drive ASTS Sell-Off
ASTS’s sharp intraday decline stems from two key catalysts: the delayed launch of its next-gen BlueBird 6 satellite and persistent short-seller pressure. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) pushed the launch from Dec. 15 to Dec. 21, citing prolonged prelaunch activities, which has rattled investor confidence. Meanwhile, short interest remains elevated at 21% of float (down from March peaks), making the stock a prime candidate for a short squeeze if positive news emerges. Analysts, however, remain bearish, with a $71.51 average price target implying a 7% downside from current levels. The stock’s explosive 13.56% intraday volatility on Friday further underscores its precarious balance between speculative optimism and fundamental skepticism.

Cable & Satellite Sector Volatility: ASTS Trails Iridium Amid Valuation Concerns
ASTS’s 6.4% drop contrasts with Iridium Communications (IRDM), which fell 3.55% on the same day. While both stocks face valuation scrutiny—ASTS trades at a 124.84 P/S ratio versus Iridium’s 2.23—their trajectories diverge. Iridium’s lower valuation and established satellite infrastructure provide a buffer against speculative swings, whereas ASTS’s high-growth narrative remains unproven. The sector’s broader volatility is fueled by regulatory shifts and competition from SpaceX, which is rumored to pursue a $1.5 trillion valuation. ASTS’s reliance on BlueBird 6’s success and its exposure to short-seller sentiment make it a riskier play within the space.

Options Playbook: ASTS20251219P70 and ASTS20251219C73 for Volatility-Driven Bets
• MACD: 3.39 (bullish divergence), RSI: 74.87 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $42.16–$84.17 (wide range)
• 200-day MA: $45.87 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $65.07 (support zone)
• Key Levels: $72.65 (first support), $76.72 (previous close), $81.20 (resistance)

ASTS’s technicals suggest a volatile short-term outlook. The RSI’s overbought reading and MACD’s bullish divergence hint at potential short-term exhaustion, but the wide Bollinger Bands indicate room for swings. For options, ASTS20251219P70 and ASTS20251219C73 stand out. ASTS20251219P70 (put) has a 111.63% implied volatility ratio, 24.99% leverage, and 0.041183 gamma, making it ideal for a 5% downside scenario where payoff could reach $0.70 per contract. ASTS20251219C73 (call) offers 113.48% IV, 22.07% leverage, and 0.041794 gamma, with a -55.30% price change ratio suggesting potential for a rebound. Both contracts’ high gamma and moderate delta position them to react sharply to price moves. Aggressive bulls may consider ASTS20251219C73 into a bounce above $76.72, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $72.65.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
The backtest of ASTS's performance after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results, with the ETF experiencing a maximum return of 32.13% over a 30-day period. The 3-day win rate is 54.37%, the 10-day win rate is 57.75%, and the 30-day win rate is 61.69%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return day was recorded on December 15, 2025, which suggests that the ETF has the potential to recover from significant intraday drops and deliver decent returns in the following days.

ASTS at Crossroads: Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Catalysts
ASTS’s 6.4% intraday drop reflects a tug-of-war between short-term execution risks and long-term growth potential. While the BlueBird 6 delay and elevated short interest create near-term headwinds, the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest volatility could persist. Investors should monitor the $72.65 support level and the $76.72 previous close as critical junctures. Meanwhile, sector leader Iridium Communications (IRDM) fell 3.55%, underscoring broader satellite sector jitters. For ASTS, the next 48 hours will test whether the market can differentiate between a temporary setback and a fundamental reassessment. Watch for $72.65 breakdown or BlueBird 6 launch updates to dictate the next move.