AST SpaceMobile Plummets 5.1% Amid Technical Downturn and Volatile Options Activity

Summary
• ASTS opens at $61.40, plummets to $54.33 intraday, closing at $55.03
• RSI at 25.13 signals oversold territory; MACD (-3.36) confirms bearish momentum
• Options volume surges with 1,427 contracts traded on 11/28 expirations
• Sector leader Thermo Fisher (TMO) declines 0.49%, hinting at broader market caution

AST SpaceMobile’s 5.1% intraday selloff has ignited a frenzy in options markets and technical indicators, with the stock trading near its 52-week low of $17.50. The sharp decline, unanchored by company-specific news, reflects a confluence of bearish momentum and speculative positioning. With the RSI in oversold territory and Bollinger Bands tightening, traders are bracing for a potential reversal or continuation of the downward spiral.

Bearish Technicals and Options Volatility Drive ASTS Sell-Off
The 5.1% drop in ASTS is driven by a short-term bearish Kline pattern and a MACD crossover below the signal line (-1.27), confirming a downtrend. The RSI at 25.13 suggests oversold conditions, but the stock remains trapped between its 200-day MA ($43.02) and 30-day MA ($74.59), indicating structural weakness. Options data amplifies the bearish narrative: 1,427 puts traded on the 11/28 $52–$55 strikes, with implied volatility ratios (IVR) surging to 93.61%–102.52%, reflecting heightened fear of further declines. The lack of company news—focused on AST’s surgical tech advocacy and unrelated liver enzyme tests—leaves technicals and options sentiment as the primary drivers.

Health Care Equipment Sector Stabilizes as ASTS Dives
The Health Care Equipment and Supplies sector, led by Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), remains relatively stable with a -0.49% intraday decline. While ASTS’s 5.1% drop is an outlier, sector peers like Medtronic and Zimmer Biomet have shown resilience amid broader market volatility. Olympus’s recent workforce reductions and Philips’s FDA warning letter highlight sector-wide challenges, but ASTS’s selloff appears disconnected from macro trends, instead reflecting speculative shorting and technical exhaustion.

Bearish Positioning and ETF Correlation: Navigating ASTS’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $43.02 (below current price)
• 30-day MA: $74.59 (above current price)
• RSI: 25.13 (oversold)
• MACD: -3.36 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $54.10 (near current price)

ASTS is trapped in a bearish short-term trend but remains above its 200-day MA, suggesting a potential bounce. Key support levels at $54.10 (lower Bollinger Band) and $52 (major put strike) could trigger a rebound. Aggressive short-term traders may consider the ASTS20251128P55 put option (strike $55, IVR 93.61%, delta -0.499) for a 58.37% price change potential. For a more conservative play, the ASTS20251128P54 put (strike $54, IVR 94.58%, delta -0.449) offers 58.73% upside with lower gamma (0.049).

ASTS20251128P55:
• Code: ASTS20251128P55
• Type: Put
• Strike: $55
• Expiry: 11/28
• IVR: 93.61% (high volatility)
• Delta: -0.499 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.036 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0499 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: $26,168 (high liquidity)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.485 (max(0, 52.28 - 55))
• Rationale: High IVR and moderate delta position this as a top-tier bearish play with strong liquidity.

ASTS20251128P54:
• Code: ASTS20251128P54
• Type: Put
• Strike: $54
• Expiry: 11/28
• IVR: 94.58% (high volatility)
• Delta: -0.449 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0516 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.049 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: $18,721 (high liquidity)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.72 (max(0, 52.28 - 54))
• Rationale: Slightly out-of-the-money but offers better reward-to-risk with higher gamma and turnover.

If $54.10 holds, ASTS20251128P54 offers a 13.5% return on a 5% move. Aggressive bears may target ASTS20251128P55 for a 9.7% return if the stock breaks below $54.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
I attempted to download daily OHLC data for AST SpaceMobile (ticker “ASTS / ASTS.O”) for the 2022-01-01 – 2025-11-20 period so that I could identify every session in which the stock experienced at least a 5 % intraday decline and run the requested post-event back-test. Unfortunately, each query returned an empty file from the data source, which means the historical price series was not found in the current database.Before I can proceed, I need a workable price series. Two options:1. Double-check the ticker • Does the data vendor list the stock under a different symbol (e.g., ASTS.OQ, ASTS US, ASTS UN)? • If you know the exact feed symbol, please let me know and I will retry the download immediately.2. Provide the price data • If you already have ASTS daily OHLC data (CSV, Excel, or JSON), you can paste the first few lines (dates, open, high, low, close, volume). • I can then upload it into the back-tester and finish the intraday-plunge strategy analysis.Once the price series is available I’ll:a) Derive all dates where the intraday low ≤ −5 % of the opening price. b) Feed those dates into the event back-test engine (holding-period return, decay curve, optimal exit day, etc.). c) Return the full statistics and an interactive visualization of the results.Let me know how you’d like to proceed, and I’ll take it from there.

ASTS at Crossroads: Rebound or Reckoning?
ASTS’s 5.1% drop has created a technical inflection point, with the stock hovering near its lower Bollinger Band and 200-day MA. While RSI suggests oversold conditions, the MACD and Kline pattern signal continued bearish momentum. Traders should monitor the $54.10 support level and sector leader Thermo Fisher (TMO, -0.49%) for broader market cues. A break below $54 could trigger a cascade of put options activity, while a rebound above $55.03 may reignite long-term bullish sentiment. Watch for $54.10 breakdown or regulatory reaction—the next 48 hours will define ASTS’s near-term trajectory.