AST SpaceMobile Initiated with Market Perform Rating by William Blair, 31x 2030 Revenue Estimate

AST SpaceMobile has been initiated with a Market Perform rating and no price target by William Blair. The stock has risen 1,600% since May 2024, but the firm believes it will be range-bound due to intense SpaceX competition, launch delays, and questions about its total addressable market. AST shares trade at 31-times its 2030 revenue estimate.

William Blair has initiated coverage of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) with a Market Perform rating and no price target. Since May of 2024, the stock has risen by an impressive 1,600%, driven by investors seeking alternatives to SpaceX. The analyst believes the stock will be range-bound due to intense competition from SpaceX, launch delays, and questions surrounding the size of its total addressable market. AST shares currently trade at 31 times its 2030 revenue estimate [1].

AST SpaceMobile recently announced a long-term agreement for access to up to 45 MHz of premium lower mid-band spectrum in the United States. This spectrum will enhance the company's planned space-based cellular broadband offering, potentially enabling peak data transmission speeds of up to 120 Mbps directly to everyday smartphones across the continental United States. The agreement, part of a broader restructuring support agreement with Ligado Networks, provides AST SpaceMobile with long-term spectrum usage rights for 80+ years [2].

In September 2024, AST SpaceMobile launched its first five commercial BlueBird satellites into low Earth orbit, each featuring the largest-ever commercial communications arrays deployed. These satellites will offer non-continuous cellular broadband service across the United States and select global markets. The next-generation Block 2 BlueBirds, featuring up to 2,400 square-foot communications arrays, are designed to deliver up to 10 times the bandwidth capacity, enabling peak data transmission speeds of up to 120 Mbps.

The company has secured additional strategic investments from AT&T, Verizon, Google, and Vodafone, as well as several contract awards with the United States Government. AST SpaceMobile has agreements with more than 45 mobile network operators globally, which have over approximately 2.8 billion existing subscribers total [2].

Despite the promising developments, AST SpaceMobile faces significant risks, including intense competition, launch delays, and regulatory approvals. The company's ability to execute its strategic plans and maintain its competitive edge will be crucial for its long-term success.

References:
[1] https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/ast-spacemobile-initiated-with-a-market-perform-at-william-blair-thefly
[2] https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250106998015/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Announces-Agreement-for-Long-Term-Access-to-up-to-45-MHz-of-Premium-Lower-Mid-Band-Spectrum-in-the-United-States-for-Direct-to-Device-Satellite-Applications