AST SpaceMobile Plummets 6.3% on BlueBird 6 Launch Success – What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) plunges 6.34% to $80.235, erasing pre-market gains after a historic satellite launch.
• Intraday range spans $78.48 to $92.95, with turnover surging to 22.25 million shares.
• BlueBird 6, the largest commercial satellite ever deployed, is now operational but hasn’t halted the sell-off.
• Analysts debate whether the selloff reflects profit-taking, valuation skepticism, or broader market jitters.

AST SpaceMobile’s shares have swung wildly on the heels of a landmark satellite launch, with investors grappling to reconcile the company’s technological breakthroughs with its volatile stock price. The stock’s 6.3% intraday drop contrasts sharply with its 300% year-to-date rally, raising questions about sustainability. With the satellite now in orbit, the focus shifts to whether the market will reward long-term potential or punish near-term execution risks.

BlueBird 6’s Triumph Fails to Stabilize ASTS Amid Profit-Taking and Valuation Concerns
ASTS opened at $89.91 on Dec. 24, briefly surging to $92.95 after the successful BlueBird 6 launch, which the company claims is the largest commercial communications array in low Earth orbit. However, the rally collapsed as traders exited positions, driven by profit-taking and skepticism about the stock’s 232% annual return. The satellite’s $120 Mbps smartphone connectivity promise, while groundbreaking, faces hurdles in scaling 45-60 launches by 2026 and securing partnerships with 50+ telecom operators. Short-sellers, with 16.3% of float sold short, capitalized on the pullback, while analysts’ cautious “hold” ratings and a $73.23 average price target (10% below current levels) added downward pressure.

Communication Equipment Sector Mixed as ERIC Trails ASTS’ Volatility
The Communication Equipment sector (XLC) saw mixed performance, with Ericsson (ERIC) down 0.31% as 5G infrastructure spending remains cautious. ASTS’ selloff, however, is more tied to its speculative growth narrative than sector-wide trends. While rivals like Lumentum (LITE) and Ciena (CIEN) traded flat, ASTS’ 6.3% drop highlights its unique exposure to satellite broadband execution risks and high valuation multiples.

Options and ETFs to Watch: ASTS20260102P70 and ASTS20260102P73 Lead the Charge
• MACD: 3.81 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 2.14, Histogram: 1.67 (momentum waning)
• RSI: 66.14 (overbought but not extreme), Bollinger Bands: 90.61 (upper), 69.20 (middle), 47.79 (lower)
• 200D MA: $47.38 (far below current price), 30D MA: $65.64 (support zone)

ASTS is trading near its 30D MA ($65.64) and 200D MA ($47.38), suggesting a potential rebound from oversold levels. The RSI at 66.14 indicates overbought conditions, but the stock’s 6.3% drop suggests exhaustion. For options, two contracts stand out:

• ASTS20260102P70:
- Strike: $70, Expiration: Jan 2, 2026
- IV Ratio: 78.65% (high volatility), Leverage Ratio: 66.45% (aggressive)
- Delta: -0.156 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0679 (time decay), Gamma: 0.0233 (price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 132,753 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $5.02/share (max gain if ASTS drops to $76.22)
- Why: High leverage and IV make this put ideal for a sharp correction, with sufficient liquidity for entry/exit.

• ASTS20260102P73:
- Strike: $73, Expiration: Jan 2, 2026
- IV Ratio: 82.71% (elevated), Leverage Ratio: 43.45% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.254 (strong sensitivity), Theta: -0.0821 (accelerated decay), Gamma: 0.0296 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 24,494 (adequate)
- Payoff (5% downside): $2.31/share (profit if ASTS falls to $76.22)
- Why: Balances leverage and liquidity, with delta/gamma favoring a directional move.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize ASTS20260102P70 for a 5% downside bet, while ASTS20260102P73 offers a safer entry. Watch for a breakdown below $70 to validate the bearish case.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
The backtest of ASTS's performance after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 53.91%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.26%, and the 30-Day win rate is 61.17%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 32.13% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is volatility, ASTS has the potential for significant gains in the aftermath of a sharp decline.

ASTS at Pivotal Crossroads – Short-Term Volatility or Long-Term Catalyst?
ASTS’ 6.3% intraday drop underscores the stock’s precarious balance between groundbreaking innovation and execution risks. While BlueBird 6’s success validates the company’s vision, the market remains skeptical about scaling 45-60 satellites by 2026 and monetizing partnerships with AT&T and Verizon. Technicals suggest a potential rebound from the 30D MA ($65.64), but a breakdown below $70 could trigger a test of the 200D MA ($47.38). Investors should monitor Ericsson (ERIC, -0.31%) for sector sentiment and ASTS’ options activity for short-term directional clues. Act now: Buy ASTS20260102P70 if ASTS closes below $75, or short the stock if it fails to hold $78.48.