AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Surges 77.70% in 8-Day Rally as 6.88% Gain Highlights Bullish Momentum Amid Technical Analysis Focus

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has experienced a notable 8-day upward streak, surging 77.70% with a 6.88% gain in the most recent session. The stock’s recent momentum suggests strong short-term buying pressure, but technical analysis is required to assess the sustainability of this trend and identify potential reversal points. Below is a structured evaluation of key indicators, followed by a backtest hypothesis aligned with the provided strategy.

Candlestick Theory

The recent 8-day rally has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a strong bullish bias. Key resistance levels emerge around $86.79 (the latest closing price) and $91.41 (the 2025-10-08 high), where prior price action indicates potential consolidation. Support is likely near $74.75 (2025-10-07 close) and $66.16 (2025-10-02 close), areas where the stock has historically found buying interest. A potential bearish reversal could be signaled if the price fails to hold above $74.75, forming a "dark cloud cover" pattern. Conversely, a break above $91.41 may validate continuation of the uptrend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are likely in a bullish alignment, given the recent surge. If the 50-day MA (short-term trend) crosses above the 200-day MA (long-term trend), it would confirm a "golden cross," reinforcing the bullish case. However, the 100-day MA may act as a dynamic support level; a close below this could indicate weakening momentum. The current price proximity to the 50-day MA suggests the trend remains intact, but traders should monitor for a potential "death cross" if the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA in the coming weeks.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has likely expanded positively, reflecting growing bullish momentum, while the MACD line crossing above the signal line would confirm a buy signal. However, the KDJ (Stochastic oscillator) may show overbought conditions (e.g., %K and %D above 80), indicating potential exhaustion in the rally. Divergence between MACD and KDJ—such as a declining KDJ while MACD remains elevated—could signal an impending pullback. Traders should watch for a bearish crossover in the KDJ as a short-term reversal warning.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded in recent sessions, with the price touching the upper Bollinger Band ($88.68 on 2025-10-09), a common overbought signal. The narrowing of the bands earlier in October (e.g., between 2025-09-30 and 2025-10-03) suggests a period of consolidation before the recent breakout. A sustained move above the upper band may indicate a continuation of the rally, but a close below the middle band ($75.75–$80.00 range) could signal a retest of key support levels.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, particularly on 2025-10-02 (16.19% gain with $1.92B volume) and 2025-10-08 (8.63% gain with $3.64B volume), validating the strength of the price action. However, volume has declined slightly in the most recent session ($1.67B), which may indicate waning enthusiasm. If the price continues higher without a corresponding volume increase, it could signal a weakening trend. Conversely, a sharp volume spike on a pullback would suggest strong buying interest at lower levels.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is currently near overbought territory (likely above 60), with a potential reading approaching 70 if the 14-day average gain continues to outpace the average loss. A close above 70 would confirm overbought conditions, but in a strong uptrend, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods. Traders should look for a divergence (e.g., lower highs in RSI despite higher price highs) as a more reliable sell signal than a rigid 70-level threshold.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 2025-09-09 low ($36.08) to the 2025-10-08 high ($91.41) include 38.2% ($60.50), 50% ($63.75), 61.8% ($66.90), and 78.6% ($71.80). The current price near $86.79 suggests a retest of the 78.6% level is unlikely without a significant correction. A pullback to the 61.8% or 50% retracement levels could offer a more favorable risk-reward entry for long positions.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy—selling ASTS when RSI crosses above 70—can be evaluated using historical data. For instance, in 2024, RSI reached 76.69 (overbought), coinciding with a price of $25.80. Selling at this point would have resulted in a subsequent 44.1% decline to $16.06 by 2025. Conversely, in 2025, an RSI of 94.68 (at $56.94) aligns with the recent 77.70% surge, suggesting the overbought signal may have been a false positive in a strong uptrend. This highlights the importance of combining RSI with other indicators (e.g., Bollinger Bands, MACD) to avoid premature exits during sustained breakouts.