AST SpaceMobile's 49.26% 5-Day Surge Sparks Rising Wedge Continuation Signal With $74.77 Resistance Looming

Candlestick Theory

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has exhibited a robust 5-day bullish streak, with a 49.26% price surge to $72.9, suggesting strong institutional or retail buying pressure. The recent candlestick pattern—a series of higher highs and higher lows—forms a rising wedge structure, typically signaling continuation of the trend if the upper resistance at $74.77 is breached. Key support levels emerge at $66.16 (prior 5-day low) and $56.94 (early October trough), while resistance is clustered near $74.77 and $76.15 (projected 10% extension from the recent rally). A break below $66.16 could trigger a retest of $56.94, aligning with Fibonacci 61.8% retracement levels from the October 2–3 rally.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is confirmed by the 50-day and 100-day moving averages crossing above the 200-day line in mid-October, forming a bullish golden cross. The 50-day MA currently sits at $62.8, the 100-day at $54.3, and the 200-day at $47.1, indicating a multi-timeframe alignment favoring longs. However, the 50-day MA is now converging with the 100-day MA near $60, suggesting potential tightening of the trend. A crossover back below the 200-day MA would invalidate the bullish setup, while a sustained move above $75 could see the 200-day MA (currently $47.1) act as a dynamic support.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive since mid-October, with the MACD line (12,26,9) crossing above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish bias. The KDJ oscillator, however, shows the J-line spiking above 80 (overbought territory), while the D-line lags behind, hinting at divergence and potential exhaustion in the rally. This confluence suggests caution: while momentum is strong, the KDJ overbought condition warns of a possible pullback. A bearish crossover in the KDJ (K < D) would align with a sell signal, but must be validated by price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded sharply, with the bands widening from a 5.5% range to 10.2% in recent sessions. The price is currently near the upper band at $74.77, indicating overbought conditions. A reversion to the middle band ($68.8–$67.76) is probable, with the 20-period standard deviation suggesting a potential target of $64.1 for the lower band. The recent contraction in the bands’ width (from 10.2% to 6.8% in early October) signaled a false breakout, implying traders should watch for a test of the $68.8 level before confirming a breakout.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to 16.4 million shares, a 25% increase from the prior week, validating the recent price action. However, volume has started to taper off, with the past two sessions showing a 15% decline in volume despite rising prices. This divergence between volume and price suggests weakening momentum. A follow-through increase in volume on a breakout above $74.77 would strengthen the case for continuation, while declining volume could indicate a false break.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI has spiked to 72, entering overbought territory. This aligns with the KDJ divergence and Bollinger Bands’ overbought condition, creating a confluence of bearish signals. A drop below 60 would signal a potential pullback, with a target of 45–50 expected if the 50-day MA fails. The RSI’s recent failure to make higher highs (despite price rising) suggests a loss of bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the October 2–3 rally ($56.94 to $72.9) include 23.6% at $67.7, 38.2% at $64.1, and 50% at $64.9. The price is currently consolidating near the 23.6% level, which coincides with the 50-day MA. A breakdown below 38.2% would target $60.5, with the 61.8% level at $58.1 acting as critical support. Conversely, a close above $74.77 would invalidate the Fibonacci structure, shifting focus to $76.15 (100% extension).

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy, based on a MACD golden cross with a 10-day holding period, yielded a 33.21% return from 2022 to 2025, underperforming the benchmark (37.69%) and exhibiting a low Sharpe ratio (0.37). This aligns with the current technical environment, where the MACD golden cross is confirmed, but the RSI and KDJ suggest overbought conditions. The strategy’s underperformance likely stems from short-term volatility and the lack of a holding period aligned with ASTS’s multi-week rally. Extending the holding period to 30 days and incorporating Fibonacci retracement levels as exit targets could improve risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, filtering signals by volume trends (e.g., requiring increasing volume on breakouts) may enhance reliability.