Assured Guaranty's €75M Bet on French Fiber: A Strategic Move for European Infrastructure Growth

The recent guarantee of €75 million in senior secured notes by Assured Guaranty (Europe) SA (AGE) for XpFibre Groupe marks a significant strategic shift for the insurer, signaling its ambition to expand into the European fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) sector. This transaction, AGE’s first in the space, not only supports XpFibre’s refinancing needs but also underscores the growing importance of infrastructure guarantees in enabling long-term debt issuance for critical digital projects.

The Transaction: A Strategic Entry into European Fiber

AGE, an indirect subsidiary of New York-based Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO), guaranteed the principal and interest on XpFibre’s €75 million fixed-rate notes, which mature in 13 years. The notes were issued to refinance existing debt, a common strategy for infrastructure firms seeking to lock in lower borrowing costs. Notably, the financing was secured through a single U.S. investor, highlighting the appeal of AGE’s credit enhancement in cross-border private placements.

The guarantee leverages AGE’s robust credit ratings—AA from S&P and AA+ from Kroll—positioning it as a trusted partner for high-risk, long-term projects. For XpFibre, the deal provides stability: the senior secured structure ensures priority repayment in case of default, while the 13-year tenor aligns with the lifecycle of FTTH networks.

XpFibre’s Role in France’s FTTH Surge

XpFibre, France’s largest independent FTTH operator, operates in a market experiencing rapid growth. show a 35% increase in subscriptions between 2023 and 2024, with 3.1 million new users added—a figure that places France among the EU’s fastest-growing FTTH markets. This growth is driven by regulatory tailwinds, including the EU’s 2030 Digital Decade targets, which mandate 100% very high-capacity connectivity.

France’s government has prioritized closing the “coverage-usage gap,” where fiber networks exist but adoption lags. Regulatory mandates to phase out copper networks (Copper Switch-Off) and public funding for rural deployment are accelerating adoption. XpFibre’s position as an independent operator allows it to capitalize on these trends, particularly in underserved regions where its open-access model fosters competition.

Why This Deal Matters for Assured Guaranty

AGE’s entry into the European fiber sector reflects its broader strategy to diversify beyond traditional municipal bonds. The insurer, which established its Paris office in 2019, now eyes opportunities in both primary and secondary markets. Yannick Kouam, AGE’s Director of Infrastructure Finance, emphasized the sector’s “large-scale financing needs” and the demand for capital efficiency in institutional portfolios.

The transaction also highlights AGE’s adaptability in structuring guarantees for infrastructure projects. While AGE’s U.S. parent has long insured municipal bonds, European fiber networks—critical to digital transformation—are a new frontier. This move aligns with the EU’s push for private investment in infrastructure, where guarantees can reduce risk for lenders.

Risks and Considerations

Despite the positives, challenges remain. France’s FTTH penetration rate lags behind leaders like Spain and Italy, with only 54% of covered households subscribed. Regulatory delays, funding gaps for rural projects, and competition from telecom giants like Orange could hinder XpFibre’s growth. Additionally, AGE’s reliance on a single U.S. investor introduces concentration risk, though this is typical for private placements.

The broader macroeconomic environment also poses risks. Rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions could strain debt servicing. However, AGE’s strong ratings and its parent’s financial backing provide a buffer.

Conclusion: A Win-Win for Growth and Stability

Assured Guaranty’s guarantee is a shrewd move that benefits both parties. For XpFibre, it secures long-term financing to expand in a market poised for growth. France’s FTTH subscriber base is projected to hit 25 million by 2025—up from 18 million in 2023—driven by EU policies and public-private partnerships. For AGE, the deal solidifies its position as a key player in European infrastructure finance, leveraging its credit strength to unlock capital for critical projects.

shows a 12% increase as of May 2025, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic pivots. As the EU races to meet its 2030 connectivity goals, AGE’s foray into fiber underscores the sector’s potential—and the role of financial guarantees in fueling it.

In a world where fiber is the backbone of the digital economy, this deal is more than a refinancing: it’s a bet on the future of European connectivity—and one that looks increasingly well-founded.