Assessing UAMY's Strategic Potential in a Geopolitically Sensitive Antimony Market

The antimony market, a critical yet underappreciated segment of the global minerals industry, has become a focal point for investors and policymakers alike. With over 90% of global antimony production concentrated in China, Russia, and Tajikistan, the mineral's supply chain is acutely vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and export restrictions. This concentration has driven prices to record highs-$50,000 per tonne in 2025-as nations scramble to secure alternative sources according to market analysis. Against this backdrop, United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) emerges as a contrarian opportunity, leveraging its domestic production capabilities and strategic partnerships to navigate a volatile market.

Geopolitical Context and Market Dynamics

Antimony's role in defense and industrial applications-ranging from flame retardants to lead-acid batteries-has elevated its status as a critical mineral according to market research. The U.S. imports 85% to 90% of its antimony requirements, creating a strategic vulnerability that the Department of Interior has explicitly acknowledged. China's dominance in the sector has further exacerbated concerns, prompting initiatives like the World Economic Forum's push for European supply chain diversification. While projects such as Military Metals' Trojárová mine in Slovakia offer hope, they remain in early stages without guaranteed financing or permits. This creates a unique opening for UAMY, which is expanding its U.S.-based operations to fill the gap.

UAMY's Strategic Expansion and Contracts

UAMY's recent moves underscore its ambition to become a cornerstone of North American antimony production. The company plans to increase output at its Thompson Falls, Montana smelter from 100 to 500 metric tonnes per month by early 2026. Simultaneously, its Madero, Mexico facility is projected to reach 200 tonnes per month by year-end. These expansions are backed by a $245 million sole-source contract with the Defense Logistics Agency and a $106.7 million supply agreement with a U.S. industrial customer. Such contracts not only secure near-term revenue but also align with the Biden administration's push for domestic critical mineral production.

However, UAMY's path is not without hurdles. The company reported a $4.05 million net loss for the first nine months of 2025, driven by $5.18 million in non-cash expenses and rising operating costs. Despite these challenges, its 2026 revenue forecast-$125–$150 million reflects optimism about fulfilling defense and industrial demand. The recent stock price decline (4.8% to $6.74 on November 19, 2025) may present an entry point for investors willing to overlook short-term volatility according to market data.

Long-Term Demand Trends and Strategic Positioning

The U.S. antimony market is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.68% from 2025 to 2035, reaching $550 million in value. This growth is fueled by two key drivers: the indispensable role of antimony trioxide in flame retardants and its use in military applications such as night-vision devices and ammunition. With the DLA's five-year contract ensuring a steady demand stream, UAMY is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends. Additionally, the company's efforts to secure low-cost feedstock through mine reopenings in Montana and mineral rights in Alaska further strengthen its cost structure.

Contrarian Investment Thesis

UAMY's stock has faced skepticism, with analysts labeling it "dangerously overvalued" following its rally tied to the DLA deal. Yet, this volatility may mask a compelling long-term opportunity. The company's expansion plans, combined with the U.S. government's prioritization of antimony as a critical mineral, suggest a strong alignment with secular trends. While operational risks-such as execution delays at Thompson Falls or regulatory hurdles-remain, the geopolitical imperative to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains provides a tailwind that could outweigh these challenges.

For contrarian investors, UAMY represents a high-conviction bet on a sector poised for structural growth. The company's ability to scale production, secure long-term contracts, and navigate a fragmented market will be critical. However, the potential rewards-both in terms of revenue growth and strategic relevance-are substantial in a world increasingly focused on supply chain resilience.