Assessing the Sustainability and Magnitude of Gains for Clear Secure (YOU) Stock Post-Amex Renewal

The recent upgrade of Clear Secure Inc. (YOU) by JPMorgan from "Neutral" to "Overweight," coupled with a raised price target to $42 from $35, has sparked renewed interest in the stock. This analysis evaluates the sustainability and magnitude of potential gains for YOU stock, focusing on the implications of the American Express (Amex) partnership renewal set to expire in June 2026.

Amex Partnership Renewal and Financial Implications

The Amex-Clear Secure partnership, a cornerstone of Clear's business model, was renewed in March 2025 for a second one-year term, maintaining terms that provide eligible Amex cardholders with up to $199 in annual statement credits for their CLEAR Plus Membership. This benefit, available to holders of specific Amex cards, including the Platinum and Green Cards, has historically driven membership growth and revenue.

JPMorgan anticipates that the partnership will renew again in 2026 on more favorable terms for Clear, potentially boosting wholesale prices for approximately 25% of the member base. Such adjustments could enhance Clear's revenue streams, particularly as the company's Q3 2025 results already demonstrated a 15.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $229.2 million according to Clear's financial results.

The firm's optimism is further supported by Clear's recent strategic initiatives, including the rollout of eGates and face-first EnVe Pods, which streamline airport security processes and improve user experience. These innovations align with Clear's goal to expand its membership base, which reached 7.7 million active CLEAR+ members as of November 2025, a 7.5% year-over-year increase.

Membership Growth and Strategic Catalysts

JPMorgan's upgraded outlook hinges on the assumption that the Amex partnership renewal will unlock stronger economics for Clear. The analyst, Cory Carpenter, highlighted that the partnership's potential renewal could significantly contribute to bookings in the second half of 2026, particularly as wholesale pricing resets. Additionally, the 2026 World Cup and the expansion of eGates are expected to serve as catalysts for membership growth and margin improvement according to analyst projections.

The recent price hike for CLEAR Plus to $209 in July 2025, matched by Amex's adjusted statement credit, underscores the alignment of incentives between the two companies. This pricing strategy, combined with the Platinum Card's $895 annual fee (which includes a $209 CLEAR credit), positions Clear to capitalize on Amex's premium cardholder base.

JPMorgan's Projections and Market Reaction

JPMorgan's price target of $42 implies a 20% upside from Clear's November 2025 closing price, reflecting the firm's confidence in the company's 2026 performance. The analyst raised its 2026 estimates for bookings, EBITDA, and free cash flow, projecting figures 5-15% above consensus. These projections are bolstered by Clear's Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $234 million to $237 million and its raised free cash flow outlook to at least $320 million for 2025 according to stock market analysis.

The market has already responded positively to the upgrade, with YOU stock surging nearly 12% following the rating change. JPMorgan's contrarian stance-highlighting Clear's highest short interest in its coverage universe-further suggests potential for continued outperformance if the Amex renewal delivers as anticipated according to analyst commentary.

Conclusion

The sustainability of gains for YOU stock appears tied to the successful renewal of the Amex partnership on favorable terms. JPMorgan's analysis, supported by Clear's strong financials and strategic momentum, positions the stock as a compelling long-term play. However, investors should monitor the June 2026 negotiations closely, as the magnitude of gains will depend on the final terms of the renewal and the execution of Clear's growth initiatives.