Assessing the Strategic Value of Trump's 'Made in America' ETFs in a Shifting Geopolitical and Trade Landscape

The launch of Donald Trump's "Made in America" ETFs in late 2025 represents a bold attempt to merge political branding with investment strategy, targeting patriotic investors seeking to align their portfolios with U.S.-centric industries. These five ETFs-Truth Social American Security & Defense (TSSD), American Next Frontiers (TSFN), American Icons (TSIC), American Energy Security (TSES), and American Red State REITs (TSRS)-are designed to capitalize on themes of domestic manufacturing, energy resilience, and geopolitical self-reliance. However, the question remains: Can these ETFs translate their ideological focus into sustainable outperformance, or are they vulnerable to the pitfalls of hype-driven trading?

Alignment with Macro Trends and Geopolitical Priorities

The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy, under the Trump administration, explicitly prioritizes economic security as a cornerstone of national defense, emphasizing industrial capacity, domestic production, and sovereignty. This aligns closely with the ETFs' focus on sectors such as defense, energy, and red-state real estate. For instance, TSES, which targets energy security, benefits from the administration's push to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains and accelerate the transition to renewables and nuclear power. Similarly, TSSD's emphasis on defense and dual-use technologies aligns with increased federal spending on critical infrastructure and military modernization.

The geopolitical landscape further supports these themes. Rising global competition, particularly in critical minerals and energy, has intensified the need for localized supply chains. According to a report by S&P Global, geopolitical risks such as supply chain disruptions and trade tensions are expected to dominate 2025–2026, making localized production and energy resilience increasingly valuable. The ETFs' focus on U.S.-based companies in these sectors positions them to benefit from policy tailwinds, including tariffs and export controls aimed at reshoring industries.

Performance Metrics and Cost Efficiency

While the ETFs are newly launched, early data suggests mixed signals. The God Bless America ETF (YALL), , has demonstrated strong performance in precious metals and gold-related sectors, . However, the Trump "Made in America" ETFs themselves lack detailed performance metrics post-launch, with no assets under management (AUM) figures or returns disclosed as of December 2025. This opacity raises questions about their immediate market reception and liquidity.

Expense ratios for the five ETFs remain undisclosed, though industry benchmarks suggest they may fall , typical for similar thematic funds. While this is competitive, investors must weigh these costs against the ETFs' long-term value proposition. For example, , which could enhance net returns for investors.

Expert Analysis: Hype vs. Long-Term Value

Critics argue that politically themed ETFs often rely on sentiment rather than sound investment logic. notes that funds like the America First ETF and God Bless America ETF have historically seen limited success, with performance driven more by political alignment than financial fundamentals. This risk is amplified in the current climate, where Trump's "Made in America" narrative could attract speculative inflows from patriotic investors, potentially inflating valuations beyond intrinsic worth.

Conversely, J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a resilient global economy , driven by AI investment and supportive financial conditions. The firm highlights that AI-driven sectors-such as technology, utilities, and logistics-could see significant earnings growth, aligning with the ETFs' focus on innovation and domestic manufacturing. For instance, TSFN's emphasis on "next frontiers" may capture AI-related opportunities, while TSES's energy security mandate could benefit from green energy subsidies and infrastructure spending.

However, sustainability of outperformance hinges on macroeconomic stability. J.P. Morgan cautions that a U.S. or global recession , coupled with sticky inflation, could undermine these ETFs' performance. Additionally, the 2026 mid-term elections may curtail Trump's policy agenda, reducing the political tailwinds that currently support the "Made in America" narrative.

Risks and Mitigation Strategies

The ETFs face several risks, including geopolitical volatility, regulatory shifts, and market polarization. For example, a ceasefire in conflict zones could lower oil prices, indirectly benefiting energy-focused ETFs like TSES by easing inflationary pressures. Conversely, a prolonged trade war or escalation in global tensions could disrupt supply chains and dampen returns.

To mitigate these risks, investors should diversify across sectors and geographies. While the ETFs emphasize U.S.-centric industries, overconcentration in politically sensitive themes could expose portfolios to sudden policy reversals. Additionally, active ETFs-such as those planned for 2026 by Yorkville America Equities-may offer more flexibility to adjust to shifting market conditions.

Conclusion

Trump's "Made in America" ETFs are strategically positioned to benefit from macro trends such as energy transition, AI-driven growth, and reshoring efforts. Their alignment with the 2025 National Security Strategy and geopolitical priorities provides a compelling narrative for patriotic investors. However, the absence of detailed performance data and the risk of hype-driven trading underscore the need for caution. While J.P. Morgan's bullish outlook for AI and U.S. equities offers optimism, the ETFs' long-term success will depend on their ability to adapt to macroeconomic uncertainties and avoid overreliance on political branding. For now, these ETFs represent a high-conviction bet on the intersection of ideology and investment, with outcomes likely to hinge on both policy execution and market resilience.