Assessing the Strategic Value of Kazakhstan's Oil Supplies to Germany Amid Geopolitical Shifts

In 2025, Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany have emerged as a critical linchpin in Europe's energy security strategy, even as geopolitical turbulence and the global energy transition create both opportunities and vulnerabilities. With Germany importing 10.6 million tonnes of Kazakh oil in 2024 and aiming to double this to 2.5 million tonnes in 2025, a Trade Council report underscores the relationship's role in recalibrating energy dependencies in a post‑Russia landscape. However, this growing reliance is shadowed by infrastructure vulnerabilities, shifting policy priorities, and the long-term implications of decarbonization.

Export Trends and Strategic Ambitions

Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline surged by 38% year‑on‑year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching 1.086 million metric tons, an Astana Times article reported. This aligns with Kazakh leadership's goal of exporting 1.7 million tonnes in 2025, an Astana Times piece notes, a target bolstered by expanded production at fields like Tengiz and brownfield incentives under the updated Subsoil Code, according to a Ministry of Energy review. Yet, volatility persists: a 1.4‑fold drop in June 2025 exports to 160,000 tonnes, as the Trade Council noted, highlights operational fragility.

Germany's appetite for Kazakh oil is driven by its need to replace Russian supplies, with the country importing $1.2 billion worth of Kazakh exports annually-accounting for 81% of its Central Asian trade, Astana Times reported. This dynamic is reinforced by intergovernmental agreements, including a 2028 extension of the "Partnering in Business with Germany" program and joint ventures to modernize logistics.

Geopolitical Risks and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Despite robust ambitions, Kazakhstan's oil lifelines face acute risks. Ukrainian drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in early 2025-targeting the Kropotkinskaya and Kavkazskaya pumping stations-reduced throughput by 21.2% in Q1 2025, causing $2.3 billion in revenue losses, according to a Kursiv analysis. Compounding this, operational failures at the Novorossiysk terminal left only one mooring point functional by August 2025, further constraining exports, Kursiv reported. These disruptions have intensified calls for diversification, with discussions on expanding the Yeskene‑Kuryk and BTC pipelines.

Germany's energy transition policies, outlined in the 2025 Energy Transition Outlook, project a shift toward sustainability by 2050, as the DNV outlook describes. However, this transition is not without contradictions. While Germany seeks to reduce hydrocarbon dependence, its immediate energy needs have led to actions such as requesting Kazakhstan to double oil exports, illustrating the tension between short‑term security and long‑term decarbonization goals.

Energy Transition Synergies and Renewable Collaborations

To mitigate these contradictions, Germany and Kazakhstan are deepening cooperation on renewables. The 11th Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue in March 2025 saw Kazakhstan commit to green hydrogen as a cornerstone of its energy strategy, The Diplomat analysis reported, with Germany's dena agency supporting the development of a national hydrogen roadmap, Astana Times noted. By 2025, Kazakhstan plans to commission nine new renewable projects (455.5 MW capacity), according to a QazaqGreen report, while aiming for 2.3 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, a Daryo report states. These efforts align with Germany's climate objectives under the Paris Agreement and its push for energy efficiency partnerships.

Yet, institutional barriers persist. Kazakhstan's state‑owned Samruk Energy dominates renewable projects, limiting private‑sector competition, and entrenched fossil fuel dependencies-exacerbated by 1990s‑era production‑sharing agreements-slow progress. For Germany, balancing its reliance on Kazakh oil with climate commitments will require sustained investment in renewable infrastructure and hydrogen diplomacy.

Strategic Value and Investment Implications

The strategic value of Kazakhstan's oil to Germany lies in its role as a stable, politically neutral supplier in a fragmented energy landscape. However, investors must weigh this against the risks of infrastructure bottlenecks and the long‑term viability of hydrocarbon exports. For Germany, the challenge is to leverage its economic influence to diversify Kazakh export routes while accelerating renewable partnerships. For Kazakhstan, the imperative is to modernize its energy sector to meet both export demands and domestic sustainability targets.