Assessing the Political and Policy Risks in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Race and Their Impact on Health and Biotech Sectors

The 2028 U.S. presidential race is already shaping up as a pivotal moment for the health and biotech sectors, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s leadership at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) serving as both a catalyst and a cautionary tale. As the architect of the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) agenda, Kennedy has reshaped federal health policy through sweeping deregulation, staffing cuts, and a controversial pivot toward alternative medicine. While his current focus remains on dismantling what he calls “entrenched bureaucratic inefficiencies,” the political and regulatory uncertainty he has sown could reverberate far beyond his tenure, influencing the next presidential cycle and investor strategies alike.

The Kennedy Effect: Policy Shifts and Market Volatility

Kennedy's tenure at HHS has been marked by radical restructuring. The elimination of 10,000 HHS staff, the disbanding of the FDA's Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices, and the cancellation of $500 million in mRNA vaccine research funding have created a fragmented regulatory landscape. These moves have already triggered a 28% drop in the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) since his appointment, with Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), and Novavax (NVAX) among the hardest-hit stocks.

The market's reaction reflects deepening concerns about regulatory instability. Biotech firms reliant on FDA approvals now face a politicized approval process, with Kennedy's allies advocating for policies that prioritize alternative therapies over evidence-based science. For instance, the revival of the Task Force on Safer Childhood Vaccines—led by Jay Bhattacharya, a vocal critic of pandemic-era measures—has raised alarms about potential delays in vaccine development and a shift in NIH funding toward unproven holistic approaches.

Political Ambitions and the 2028 Shadow

While Kennedy has publicly denied running for president in 2028, his allies are laying the groundwork. A Kennedy-aligned super PAC recently mobilized grassroots support, and his deputy chief of staff, Stefanie Spear, has been accused of preparing for a future campaign. Even if Kennedy remains at HHS, his MAHA agenda—rooted in anti-vaccine rhetoric, skepticism of Big Pharma, and a focus on chronic disease prevention—could become a blueprint for a 2028 platform.

The implications for the biotech sector are profound. Kennedy's push to eliminate 10 regulations for every new one introduced, coupled with his advocacy for “most favored nations” drug pricing and patent waivers, could erode profit margins for pharmaceutical giants. Meanwhile, his emphasis on preventive care and alternative medicine may redirect public funding away from cutting-edge therapies like gene editing and mRNA vaccines.

Investment Risks and Strategic Considerations

For investors, the key risks lie in regulatory unpredictability and policy-driven market corrections. The biotech sector's reliance on FDA approvals means that any further politicization of the agency could lead to prolonged delays or abrupt shifts in priorities. Additionally, Kennedy's anti-vaccine stance and the resulting public health messaging conflicts could exacerbate vaccine hesitancy, undermining demand for immunization programs and related technologies.

Investors should also monitor the potential for sector-specific tariffs and trade tensions, which could further strain supply chains for biotech products. However, opportunities exist in areas less vulnerable to regulatory overreach, such as AI-driven drug discovery platforms and telemedicine expansion—sectors Kennedy has hinted at supporting.

Navigating the Uncertainty

To mitigate risks, investors should:
1. Diversify portfolios to include companies with less dependence on FDA approvals, such as those leveraging AI for drug discovery or expanding telehealth infrastructure.
2. Hedge against regulatory volatility by allocating capital to defensive healthcare stocks (e.g., medical device manufacturers) and companies with strong cash reserves.
3. Monitor political developments closely, particularly Kennedy's interactions with the Trump administration and his allies' grassroots mobilization efforts.

The 2028 race is still a distant horizon, but the seeds of its impact are being sown today. As Kennedy's policies continue to reshape the health landscape, investors must balance the allure of biotech innovation with the sobering reality of a regulatory environment increasingly influenced by political agendas. The next few years will test not only the resilience of the sector but also the adaptability of those who bet on it.