Assessing Political and Economic Risks in Brazil Ahead of the 2026 Election

Brazil’s political and economic landscape is undergoing a pivotal transformation as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval ratings climb ahead of the 2026 election, while U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports reshape investor sentiment and geopolitical alliances. This interplay of domestic and international factors presents both risks and opportunities for investors navigating Brazil’s complex market.

Lula’s Political Resurgence: A Nation Divided

Lula’s approval ratings have steadily increased from 40% in May 2025 to 46% in August, with disapproval rates declining to 51%—the lowest since his return to office [1]. This upward trend is driven by two key factors: falling food inflation, which has reduced public perceptions of economic hardship, and a nationalist response to U.S. tariffs. The latter, widely perceived as politically motivated, has bolstered Lula’s image as a defender of national sovereignty [2]. A “rally around the flag” effect has amplified this, with 60.2% of Brazilians approving of Lula’s foreign policy stance [3].

However, support remains uneven. While low-income voters in the Northeast have shifted from 46% to 55% approval in a single month, right-leaning demographics, including Bolsonarists, continue to disapprove [4]. This polarization suggests that Lula’s political gains are contingent on maintaining economic stability and avoiding backlash from sectors harmed by the U.S. tariffs.

Tariffs and Geopolitical Rebalancing

Trump’s tariffs, imposed in August 2025, have accelerated Brazil’s pivot toward China and BRICS nations. Confidence in China has risen from 30% in 2023 to 36% in 2025, as Brazil seeks to diversify trade partnerships [5]. This shift is not merely economic but geopolitical: Lula’s government has rejected U.S. demands and turned to the World Trade Organization to challenge the tariffs, signaling a strategic realignment [6].

For investors, this rebalancing introduces both risks and opportunities. While U.S. imports account for only 13% of Brazil’s exports, the political uncertainty and potential retaliatory measures could create market volatility [1]. Sectors like leather and coffee, which face immediate demand shocks from the tariffs, may struggle in the short term. Yet, Brazil’s ability to redirect exports to Asia—particularly China—offers long-term resilience.

Investor Sentiment: Calculated Optimism

The interplay of Lula’s political momentum and the tariff dispute has created a nuanced environment for investors. On one hand, Lula’s firm stance has reinforced perceptions of national resilience, attracting capital to sectors aligned with his agenda, such as infrastructure and green energy. On the other, the U.S. tariffs have heightened concerns about regulatory unpredictability, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing [3].

A critical question for investors is whether Lula’s approval gains will translate into policy stability. While his government has leveraged the tariff crisis to consolidate support, the 2026 election remains a wildcard. If Lula’s coalition fractures or economic headwinds resurface—such as a rebound in inflation—investor confidence could wane. Conversely, a sustained shift toward BRICS partnerships could unlock new markets for Brazilian commodities and technology.

Conclusion: Navigating a Shifting Landscape

Brazil’s 2026 election is shaping up as a referendum on Lula’s ability to balance domestic economic challenges with a redefined global role. For investors, the key risks lie in political polarization and the lingering effects of U.S. tariffs, while the opportunities stem from Brazil’s growing integration with China and BRICS. Those who can navigate this duality—hedging against short-term volatility while capitalizing on long-term realignments—may find Brazil’s market increasingly attractive.

Source:
[1] Brazil's Lula Extends Comeback as Approval Ticks Up [https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-extends-comeback-approval-ticks-up-2025-08-20/]
[2] Lula's approval rises as economy and U.S. tariffs shape public perceptions [https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2025/08/20/lulas-approval-rises-as-economy-and-u-s-tariffs-shape-public-perceptions/]
[3] Trump's tariffs are giving Lula a boost and shifting Brazil's geopolitics [https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/trumps-tariffs-are-giving-lula-a-boost-and-shifting-brazils-geopolitics/]
[4] Lula approval keeps bouncing back | Economy [https://valorinternational.globo.com/economy/news/2025/08/20/lula-approval-keeps-bouncing-back.ghtml]
[5] What Factors Are Driving Up Lula's Popularity in Brazil? [https://thedialogue.org/analysis/what-factors-are-driving-up-lulas-popularity-in-brazil]
[6] Brazil mulls legal challenges to tariffs as impacts weigh on US consumers [https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/8/27/brazil-mulls-legal-challenges-to-tariffs-as-impacts-weigh-on-us-consumers]