Assessing the Long-Term Momentum Potential of Almirall Following 2025 Dermatology Pipeline Catalysts

Almirall's dermatology division has emerged as a cornerstone of its long-term growth strategy, with 2025 pipeline catalysts poised to drive valuation expansion and market re-rating potential. The company's robust financial performance, coupled with a deepening pipeline of biologics and innovative therapies, underscores its position as a leader in medical dermatology.

Pipeline Catalysts: Biologics and Early-Stage Innovations

Almirall's 2025 pipeline is anchored by its biologics portfolio, including Ebglyss® (lebrikizumab) and Ilumetri® (tildrakizumab), which have already demonstrated commercial success. Ebglyss, launched in 13 European markets, generated €44.9 million in H1 2025 net sales, a >4x increase YoY, according to Almirall's H1 2025 results, while Ilumetri achieved €113.3 million in H1 2025 sales, with peak sales projected to exceed €300 million in Almirall's Q1 2025 results. These products are supported by strong clinical data and real-world evidence, such as Klisyri's (tirbanibulin) demonstrated efficacy in actinic keratosis, as presented in an AAD 2025 presentation.

Beyond commercialization, Almirall is advancing early-stage assets. The anti-IL-1RAP monoclonal antibody (LAD191), presented at the 2025 AAD meeting, showed favorable safety and tolerability in Phase I trials and is set to enter Phase II for hidradenitis suppurativa, according to Almirall's reporting. Additionally, collaborations like the partnership with Simcere to develop multispecific antibodies for autoimmune skin diseases in China highlight Almirall's commitment to expanding its therapeutic footprint, as noted in a JP Morgan analyst comment.

Financial Performance and R&D Investment

Almirall's H1 2025 results reflect the impact of these pipeline advancements. Net sales rose 12.7% to €560.5 million, with EBITDA increasing 16.6% to €121.8 million, per a BusinessWire H1 2025 release. The European dermatology business alone grew 24.2% YoY to €289.5 million, according to a NewsNReleases report, driven by biologics and strategic market expansion. R&D investment surged 27% YoY in H1 2025, accounting for 12.8% of net sales, as detailed in an Almirall newsroom release, underscoring the company's focus on innovation.

Valuation Metrics and Market Re-Rating Potential

Despite strong fundamentals, Almirall's valuation appears mixed. Its current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 120.6x, noted in a Yahoo Finance note, far exceeds industry averages, suggesting overvaluation. However, a DCF model indicates the stock is undervalued by 50.9% based on long-term cash flow projections, according to a Simply Wall Street analysis, pointing to potential upside if the pipeline delivers.

Comparative analysis with dermatology peers reveals Almirall's EV/EBITDA of 15.3x and EV/Revenue of 2.7x, per public comps, are in line with sector trends, though its high PE ratio remains a concern. Analysts project revenue to reach €1.4 billion by 2028, with earnings of €145.4 million, translating to a fair value of €13.3 per share in a Simply Wall St valuation. This implies significant re-rating potential if the company sustains its growth trajectory and executes on late-stage trials.

Strategic Positioning and Industry Tailwinds

Almirall's focus on medical dermatology aligns with broader industry tailwinds, including rising healthcare spending and unmet needs in immune-mediated skin diseases. The company's geographic expansion, particularly in Europe and China, and its lifecycle management strategies (e.g., partnerships with Lilly and Sun Pharma), further enhance its competitive edge, as shown in Investing.com slides.

Conclusion

Almirall's 2025 pipeline catalysts-driven by biologics, early-stage innovations, and strategic collaborations-position it for sustained growth. While valuation metrics present a mixed picture, the company's operational execution, R&D momentum, and market leadership in dermatology suggest a compelling case for long-term investors. As key trials advance and commercial launches scale, Almirall may unlock significant market re-rating potential, particularly if its pipeline delivers on projected peak sales and therapeutic differentiation.