Assessing the Impact of Whale Selling on Dogecoin's Short-Term Trajectory

The cryptocurrency market remains a theater of conflicting signals, and Dogecoin (DOGE) is no exception. As on-chain data and technical indicators paint a mixed picture, the role of whale activity-both in selling and accumulation-has become a focal point for assessing DOGE's short-term trajectory. This analysis synthesizes recent developments to evaluate whether bearish momentum or bullish catalysts will dominate in the coming weeks.

Whale Selling and Bearish Momentum

Recent on-chain data reveals a surge in whale selling that has contributed to a bearish atmosphere. Over the past two weeks, large holders have liquidated approximately 4.72 billion DOGE worth ~$770 million, signaling a deliberate repositioning by institutional and high-net-worth participants. This activity coincided with a sharp drop in DOGE's price below key support levels, including the $0.18 threshold, as retail demand waned. The cumulative effect has been a breakdown of a multi-year rising trendline, marking a structural shift in market sentiment.

Such selling pressure is amplified by macroeconomic headwinds, including Bitcoin's death cross and broader risk-off conditions in global markets according to recent analysis. According to a report by InvestX, the divergence between DOGE's market capitalization and on-chain transaction volume-reflected in a rising Network Value to Transactions (NVT) score-further underscores structural imbalances, raising concerns about a potential correction.

Technical Indicators: A Bullish Counterpoint

Despite the bearish narrative, technical analysis suggests a more nuanced outlook. As of November 2025, DOGE's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.5, indicating neutral conditions, suggesting the asset is neither overbought nor oversold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line, a sign of bullish momentum.

On-chain volume data also tells a story of resilience. DOGE recently broke through the $0.220 resistance level with trading volume exceeding 300 million coins, a sign of strong buying pressure. Whale activity has not been entirely bearish: large holders absorbed 1 billion DOGE (~$770 million) over the past month, signaling confidence in the asset's potential. Technical patterns, including a "bull flag" formation, suggest the uptrend could resume, with some analysts projecting a move toward $0.65 if momentum persists according to recent analysis.

On-Chain Divergence and Institutional Flows

The interplay between whale selling and accumulation creates a complex on-chain landscape. While large holders have offloaded significant volumes, net inflows into exchanges have turned positive for the first time in months-a historically bullish sign. This shift could indicate that downside momentum is exhausting, with support forming around $0.1520 to $0.1537. Traders are now watching whether DOGE can reclaim the $0.159–$0.160 range to signal stabilization according to technical analysis.

A critical wildcard remains the anticipated Grayscale Dogecoin ETF. Regulatory deadlines under Section 8(a) are approaching, and a surprise approval could immediately reprice the asset, normalizing the elevated NVT ratio through increased institutional participation. However, continued macroeconomic uncertainty and Bitcoin's bearish technicals remain headwinds.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point

Dogecoin's short-term trajectory hinges on resolving the tension between bearish whale selling and bullish technical and on-chain signals. While large holders have driven a sharp correction, their recent accumulation and positive exchange flows suggest a potential bottoming process. The coming weeks will be pivotal, with key support levels and the ETF decision serving as critical inflection points. Investors must remain cautious but attentive to evolving dynamics, as DOGE's path could pivot sharply depending on institutional flows and macroeconomic catalysts.