Assessing the Impact of Upcoming $190M Token Unlocks on SUI, KMNO, and Altcoin Volatility

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a wave of token unlocks in late 2025 and early 2026, with a combined $190 million in tokens set to enter circulation. These events, involving major projects like Sui (SUI), Kamino (KMNO), and a host of altcoins, present both risks and opportunities for investors. By analyzing historical price patterns, supply dynamics, and strategic entry points, this article dissects the potential market impact and offers actionable insights for navigating the volatility.

SUI: A $78.9M Unlock and Historical Volatility

Sui's (SUI) unlock on January 1, 2026, will release 55.31 million tokens, valued at $78.9 million, representing 1.48% of its market capitalization. While this is a relatively modest proportion compared to KMNO, SUI's unlock history reveals significant volatility. For instance, a February 2024 unlock of 60 million SUI tokens triggered an 8% price decline within 48 hours, accompanied by a 200% spike in trading volume. Analysts predict a 25–35% surge in daily trading volume around major unlock dates, driven by increased liquidity and selling pressure.

The SUI unlock schedule is part of a structured monthly vesting plan, with prior unlocks in May, June, July, August, and October 2025 contributing to persistent market instability. A critical event occurred on October 10, 2025, when 44 million SUI tokens ($144M) unlocked, coinciding with an 87% price crash from $3.80 to $0.50-the largest liquidation event in crypto history. This underscores the importance of timing and market conditions in mitigating risk.

KMNO: Proportional Impact and High Volatility

Kamino (KMNO) faces a more concentrated challenge. On December 30, 2025, 229.17 million KMNO tokens (5.35% of its circulating supply) will unlock, valued at $11.8 million. This represents 22% of KMNO's market capitalization, making it the largest proportional unlock of the wave. Historical data shows KMNO's price volatility intensifies seven days post-unlock, with a 43.68% 3-month and 69.29% 6-month volatility rate.

KMNO's vesting schedule includes prior unlocks, such as the April 30, 2024, release of 650 million tokens to the community and grants. The token's price has declined by 60% over the past year, but recent 7-day and 30-day gains suggest short-term resilience. Investors must weigh the risk of selling pressure against potential recovery driven by institutional adoption and ecosystem growth.

Altcoin Volatility: Broader Market Dynamics

Beyond SUI and KMNO, the unlock wave includes tokens like ENA ($26.87M), EIGEN ($21.82M), BEAT ($20.84M), COCA ($14.71M), XION ($10.22M), and CAPX ($6.96M). Historical precedents indicate that low-circulating-supply altcoins often face sharp corrections post-unlock. For example, Aptos and Avalanche saw 7% and 5% price drops, respectively, following unlocks.

The cumulative effect of these unlocks could amplify market-wide volatility. With over $720 million in token value expected to enter markets by December 2025, liquidity constraints and investor sentiment will play pivotal roles in determining price trajectories.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Mitigation

For SUI, strategic entry points may emerge post-unlock, particularly if the market absorbs the increased supply without triggering panic selling. Historical data suggests that SUI's price often stabilizes within a week of unlocks, provided broader market conditions remain favorable. Investors should monitor trading volume spikes and institutional activity as leading indicators.

KMNO's proportional unlock presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. A potential strategy involves entering the market 1–2 weeks before the December 30 unlock, capitalizing on anticipatory buying, while hedging against downside risk with stop-loss orders. Given KMNO's 22% market cap unlock, a 10–15% price correction is plausible, but long-term holders may benefit from post-unlock recovery if the token's fundamentals hold.

For altcoins, diversification is key. Tokens with strong institutional backing, like EIGEN, may exhibit greater resilience, while smaller projects like CAPX could face sharper corrections. Investors should prioritize projects with clear use cases and robust ecosystems to mitigate supply-driven volatility.

Conclusion

The $190M unlock wave in late 2025 and early 2026 will test the resilience of SUI, KMNO, and altcoins. While SUI's structured vesting plan and KMNO's proportional unlock pose distinct risks, historical volatility patterns and strategic timing offer pathways to navigate the turbulence. By leveraging supply dynamics and historical data, investors can position themselves to capitalize on post-unlock opportunities while managing downside exposure.