Assessing the Impact of Political and Humanitarian Crises on Sports and Leisure Sector Investments in Conflict Zones

The tragic death of Suleiman al-Obeid, the "Palestinian Pele," on August 6, 2025, while waiting for humanitarian aid in southern Gaza, has become a stark symbol of the human and economic toll of conflict on sports and leisure sectors. Al-Obeid's legacy—100+ career goals, a scissor-kick goal in the 2010 West Asian Football Federation Championship, and his role in Palestine's 2015 AFC Asian Cup qualification—contrasts sharply with the grim reality of 662 sports-related deaths in Gaza since October 2023. His case underscores a critical question for investors: How do political instability and humanitarian crises reshape the risk-reward calculus for emerging markets in sports and leisure?

The Human Cost as a Market Signal

Al-Obeid's death is not an isolated incident but part of a systemic pattern. The Palestinian Football Association (PFA) reports that 321 footballers, coaches, and officials have been killed in Gaza since 2023, with infrastructure like stadiums and training facilities destroyed or repurposed. This mirrors broader trends in conflict zones, where leisure infrastructure is often collateral damage. For instance, in Syria, 70% of sports facilities have been damaged or destroyed since 2011, while in Lebanon, 60% of public schools now serve as shelters for displaced families, eroding communal leisure spaces.

The human cost directly impacts investment viability. In Javanrood, Iran—a border region reliant on tourism—research from 2020–2025 shows that 75% of local community responses to pandemic-driven crises were ineffective, with tourism-related variables like hotel occupancy and event attendance collapsing. Similarly, in Ukraine, 363 sports facilities have been destroyed since 2022, with Ukrainian clubs like Shakhtar Donetsk losing €50 million in transfer revenue after FIFA's emergency transfer window. These examples highlight how conflict and instability erode the physical and social capital underpinning leisure sectors.

Political Risks and Geopolitical Volatility

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed the sector to unprecedented geopolitical risks. FIFA and UEFA's exclusion of Russian teams, the termination of Gazprom's €40 million sponsorship deal, and the forced sale of Chelsea FC by Roman Abramovic illustrate how political decisions can disrupt revenue streams and brand partnerships. Meanwhile, the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar—moved to winter to avoid heat—cost $220 billion, with financial constraints leading to scaled-back stadium projects. Such events underscore the logistical and reputational challenges of hosting mega-events in politically sensitive regions.

Security threats further complicate investments. Between 1970–2019, 74 terrorist plots targeted sporting venues, with 50% involving football stadia. The 2009 attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Pakistan and missile strikes near Formula E events in Saudi Arabia highlight the vulnerability of high-profile events. For investors, this means elevated insurance costs, operational delays, and reputational risks tied to perceived complicity in regional conflicts.

Socio-Economic Fragility and Infrastructure Gaps

Fragile governance exacerbates these risks. In Lebanon, GDP fell from $54.9 billion in 2018 to $17.94 billion in 2023, crippling public investment in leisure infrastructure. Urban leisure spaces—parks, community centers—are either destroyed or repurposed for emergency housing, as seen in Gaza and Syria. This creates a vicious cycle: deteriorating infrastructure reduces community resilience, which in turn limits post-conflict recovery potential.

Conversely, opportunities exist for investors who prioritize resilience. The PFA's efforts to rebuild Gaza's sports infrastructure with international aid, and Qatar's $220 billion World Cup investment, demonstrate how strategic public-private partnerships can mitigate risks. Similarly, Javanrood's reliance on social media marketing and health equipment production during the pandemic shows the potential for adaptive, crisis-driven innovation.

Data-Driven Insights for Investors

To assess long-term risks, investors must analyze macroeconomic indicators and governance metrics. For example, Lebanon's GDP contraction and Syria's 80% population displacement rate (World Bank, 2024) signal systemic fragility. Conversely, Qatar's oil price volatility and Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 reforms offer mixed signals for leisure investments.

Strategic Recommendations

1. Diversify Geographically and Sectorially: Avoid over-concentration in conflict-prone regions. Instead, invest in hybrid models that blend sports with tourism, education, and healthcare—sectors with dual humanitarian and economic value.
2. Prioritize Resilient Infrastructure: Allocate capital to modular, multi-use facilities that can adapt to crises. For example, stadiums with emergency shelter capabilities or training centers that double as community hubs.
3. Engage in Crisis Management Planning: Partner with local governments and NGOs to develop contingency plans for protests, terrorism, and infrastructure collapse. The PFA's collaboration with UEFA to honor al-Obeid's legacy while addressing humanitarian needs is a model for such engagement.
4. Leverage Digital Innovation: Invest in virtual sports platforms and e-sports, which reduce physical infrastructure risks while tapping into global markets.

Conclusion

The death of Suleiman al-Obeid is a tragic reminder that sports and leisure are not immune to the ravages of conflict. For investors, the challenge lies in balancing the human cost with the potential for long-term returns. By adopting a risk-aware, adaptive approach—focusing on resilience, diversification, and crisis preparedness—investors can navigate the turbulence of conflict zones and contribute to rebuilding sectors that foster hope, unity, and economic recovery.