Assessing the Geopolitical and Institutional Risks in U.S.-Venezuela Relations Amid Trump's Strategy Shift

The U.S.-Venezuela relationship has long been a volatile mix of geopolitical rivalry, economic leverage, and institutional friction. In 2025–2026, this dynamic intensified as the Trump administration escalated its confrontation with the Maduro regime, culminating in a military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed Delcy Rodríguez as acting president. Central to this shift is the DEA's decade-long investigation into Rodríguez, a figure now at the heart of U.S. foreign policy and investment calculus. This article unpacks how DEA intelligence, sanctions, and military interventions are reshaping the geopolitical and institutional risks for investors and policymakers.

The DEA's Shadow Over Delcy Rodríguez

Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela's acting president, has been a focal point of U.S. law enforcement scrutiny for years. According to a report by the Associated Press, the DEA has maintained a detailed intelligence file on Rodríguez since at least 2018, designating her a "priority target" in 2022 for her alleged "significant impact" on the drug trade. The agency's records reveal her involvement in drug trafficking, gold smuggling, and money laundering operations, including the use of Caribbean hotels in Isla Margarita as fronts for illicit financial activity. Rodríguez is also linked to Alex Saab, Maduro's alleged bagman arrested in 2020 on money laundering charges.

Despite these allegations, the U.S. government has not publicly charged Rodríguez with criminal wrongdoing. However, her status as a DEA priority target underscores the agency's belief in her systemic role in Venezuela's "criminal-hybrid regime". This duality-where Rodríguez is both a sanctioned official and a potential U.S. ally-reflects the Trump administration's contradictory strategy of leveraging Venezuela's oil resources while confronting its narco-corruption.

Trump's Strategy: Sanctions, Military Action, and Oil Ambitions

The Trump administration's 2026 military operation, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, marked a dramatic escalation. The U.S. captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on charges of narcoterrorism and drug trafficking, while Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president under Trump's supervision. Trump framed the intervention as a law-enforcement action to dismantle drug networks but also emphasized Venezuela's oil wealth, stating the U.S. would "run" the country until a transition occurred.

This strategy hinges on two pillars:
1. Sanctions and Diplomatic Leverage: The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has targeted Maduro's inner circle, including his nephews, for narco-trafficking. These sanctions, combined with the designation of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, aim to isolate the regime financially.
2. Energy Sector Reopening: Trump has signaled a potential rollback of oil sanctions to attract U.S. energy firms, despite ongoing legal and political risks. For example, the administration exempted Venezuelan oil revenues held in U.S. Treasury accounts from judicial claims, asserting control over sovereign assets.

However, the military intervention has drawn criticism for its opacity. Analysts question whether the operation was primarily about drug trafficking or served as a pretext for regime change. The U.S. military's involvement, including the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, also signals a broader strategic goal: isolating the Cuba-Nicaragua-Venezuela axis and countering Chinese influence in the region.

Investment Risks: Sanctions, Instability, and the Oil Sector

For investors, the U.S. strategy creates a paradox. While Trump's rhetoric suggests optimism about Venezuela's oil potential, the reality is fraught with risks:
- Sanctions Complexity: PDVSA remains blocked under Executive Order 13884, which freezes assets of the Venezuelan government and its entities. Even if sanctions are eased, U.S. companies must navigate compliance hurdles, including restrictions on transactions with sanctioned individuals like Rodríguez.
- Political Uncertainty: Venezuela's political transition is far from stable. Rodríguez, though now acting president, has publicly criticized the U.S. military action as "brutal aggression". This defiance complicates efforts to establish a cooperative governance framework.
- Historical Precedents: U.S. firms remain wary of Venezuela's history of expropriations and nonpayment. For instance, Chevron and ConocoPhillips were owed billions in arbitration awards after their assets were seized in 2007.

The oil sector itself is a double-edged sword. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, but production has plummeted to under 1 million barrels per day due to underinvestment and mismanagement. Trump's goal of boosting production could lower global oil prices, but short-term disruptions-such as strikes or political instability-remain a concern.

The Geopolitical Calculus

The U.S. intervention has broader implications for global markets and diplomacy. While Venezuela's bond market has been in default since 2017, its oil sector could indirectly affect energy prices and regional stability. The Trump administration's alignment with Rodríguez also raises questions about the legitimacy of the interim government and the potential for further military entanglements.

Moreover, the DEA's focus on Rodríguez highlights a shift in U.S. foreign policy toward integrating law enforcement intelligence into diplomatic and economic strategies. This approach, while innovative, risks conflating criminal investigations with geopolitical objectives, potentially undermining the rule of law.

Conclusion

The U.S.-Venezuela relationship under Trump's strategy is a high-stakes experiment in leveraging DEA intelligence, sanctions, and military power to reshape a destabilized nation. For investors, the rewards of accessing Venezuela's oil sector are tempered by profound risks: legal uncertainties, political volatility, and the shadow of past expropriations. While the Trump administration's vision of a U.S.-led Venezuela may appeal to energy firms, the path to profitability remains obscured by the fog of war and the complexities of narco-state governance.

As the situation evolves, investors must weigh not only the potential returns from Venezuela's oil but also the geopolitical costs of aligning with a regime that straddles the line between criminality and statecraft.