ASRUSDT Market Overview

• The 24-hour candle closed lower at 2.218, after hitting a high of 2.315 and a low of 2.136.
• A bearish momentum trend emerged, with RSI below 30 indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the latter half of the day, particularly between 10:30 and 12:00 ET.
• Price formed a bullish reversal pattern near 2.16–2.18, though bearish pressure returned afterward.
• Total volume exceeded 780,000 and turnover surpassed $1.6 million, signaling strong participation.

AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) opened at 2.216 at 12:00 ET – 1, reached a high of 2.315, a low of 2.136, and closed at 2.218 by 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume exceeded 780,000, with a notional turnover of over $1.6 million, indicating heightened interest. The price action featured sharp swings amid shifting market sentiment.

The structure over the past 24 hours shows a key support level forming around 2.15–2.18, supported by two bullish reversals and a rebound after hitting a 24-hour low of 2.136. A larger bearish rejection from the 2.315 high marked a strong resistance zone, which held for the remainder of the period. A notable doji formed near 2.236, suggesting indecision at the top of the move. The price then retraced through key Fibonacci levels—61.8% at 2.23 and 38.2% at 2.26—before consolidating in a narrower range in the early hours of the morning.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period MA in the early part of the session, confirming a bearish bias, while the 50-period MA acted as a temporary support in the second half of the day. The daily chart shows a bearish crossover between the 50- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the medium-term downtrend. MACD showed bearish divergence after the initial spike, suggesting the bullish momentum was short-lived. RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 for much of the afternoon and evening, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, though this was not confirmed by volume.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp move from 2.236 to 2.136, signaling high volatility. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting consolidation may follow. Volume and turnover surged during the 10:30–12:00 ET period, particularly around the 2.203–2.283 swing, where most of the trading activity occurred. However, price failed to follow through on the bullish breakout from 2.203, showing a divergence between price and volume. This divergence highlights the risk of a false recovery or a continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration aims to exploit the volatility observed in the ASRUSDT pair through a trend-following approach. It involves entering a long position when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period moving average, with a stop loss placed below the most recent swing low. A short position is triggered when the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA, with a stop loss above the most recent swing high. The RSI level is also used as a filter: long entries are only triggered if RSI is above 50, while short entries require RSI to be below 50. This strategy aligns with the recent price behavior, particularly the bearish trend confirmed by the 50- and 200-period MA crossover. Given the high volatility and the potential for another swing to the downside from the 2.218 level, the backtest would likely favor short-term bearish positioning. However, the formation of a bullish reversal near 2.16–2.18 may provide a potential entry point for a long setup if confirmed by increased volume and a break above 2.23.