ASML Surges 6% as TSMC’s Bold Capex Plan Ignites AI-Driven Optimism – What’s Next for the $500B Giant?

Summary
• ASML’s shares rocket 6.02% intraday, hitting a record high of $1,358.00.
• Market cap breaches $527 billion, making ASML the third European company to surpass $500 billion valuation.
• TSMC’s $56 billion 2026 capex forecast fuels AI sector euphoria, with AMAT (7.18% gain) leading the equipment rally.

ASML’s meteoric rise reflects cascading optimism from TSMC’s bullish outlook, signaling a sustained AI-driven semiconductor boom. The stock’s 6.02% surge—its largest intraday gain since 2023—underscores the sector’s alignment with global AI infrastructure spending. With TSMC’s capital expenditure plans and ASML’s cutting-edge lithography dominance, the European tech titan is now a focal point for investors navigating the AI revolution.

TSMC’s Record $56B Capex Plan Fuels ASML’s Record Rally
ASML’s 6.02% intraday surge stems directly from TSMC’s blockbuster $56 billion 2026 capital expenditure forecast, a 20% increase from initial guidance. This move signals TSMC’s aggressive commitment to AI-driven chip manufacturing, which hinges on ASML’s EUV lithography machines. Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau highlighted the symbolic weight of ASML’s $500 billion milestone, noting its ripple effect on European markets. The stock’s 7.6% intraday high (reaching $1,358.00) aligns with TSMC’s $56 billion capex plan, which validates sustained demand for ASML’s tools in AI chip production. With TSMC accounting for ~20% of ASML’s revenue, this client’s optimism directly translates to ASML’s valuation trajectory.

Semiconductor Equipment Sector Rides AI Wave as AMAT Soars 7.18%
ASML’s rally mirrors a broader semiconductor equipment sector surge, led by Applied Materials (AMAT) gaining 7.18% on the same day. TSMC’s capex announcement triggered a 3.5% jump in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (XSD), with peers like Lam Research and KLA Technologies also surging. While ASML’s 6.02% gain is sector-leading, the synchronized move underscores the sector’s deep integration with TSMC’s AI-driven roadmap. The sector’s collective response validates the thesis that TSMC’s capex plans are a proxy for global AI infrastructure spending, with equipment makers positioned to benefit from multi-year capital expenditure cycles.

Technical Bullishness and ETFs Signal High Conviction in ASML’s AI-Driven Trajectory
• MACD: 55.26 (above signal line 40.43), RSI: 78.78 (overbought), 200D MA: $866.87 (far below current price).
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $1,331.77 (near current price), middle at $1,139.74, lower at $947.71.
• Key Levels: 200D MA ($866.87) as long-term support; 52W high ($1,358.00) as immediate resistance.

ASML’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD divergence suggesting a continuation of the rally. The stock is trading above all major moving averages, with the 200D MA acting as a distant floor. While the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (XSD) lacks leveraged exposure, investors can use it as a proxy for sector-wide AI optimism. The absence of listed options complicates direct leverage, but the VanEck ETF’s 3.5% gain today highlights sector alignment. Aggressive bulls should monitor a breakout above $1,358.00 (52W high) for a potential $1,400+ target.

Backtest ASML Holding Stock Performance
The backtest of ASML's performance after a 6% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains, with varying win rates and returns across different time frames. Here's a detailed analysis:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The 6% intraday surge event occurred 515 times over the period. The 3-day win rate was 50.29%, the 10-day win rate was 54.76%, and the 30-day win rate was 53.01%. This suggests that approximately half to two-thirds of the time, the stock continued to show positive returns in the short to medium term after the surge event.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the surge was 0.16%, the 10-day return was 0.66%, and the 30-day return was 2.43%. This indicates that while the immediate post-surge returns were modest, there was still a positive trend in the stock price in the following weeks.3. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed following the surge was 5.37%, which occurred on day 58 after the event. This highlights that while the average returns were modest, there was potential for more significant gains in the event of a successful surge.In conclusion, a 6% intraday surge in ASML from 2022 to the present has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term performance, with the majority of days showing gains in the first few weeks after the surge. However, the returns are generally modest, with the maximum return being 5.37% over the 58 days backtested.

ASML’s $500B Milestone: A Catalyst for Sustained AI-Driven Gains – Watch 1358.0 Resistance and XSD ETF Momentum
ASML’s 6.02% surge and $527 billion valuation are not isolated events but a harbinger of sustained AI-driven demand. The stock’s technicals and TSMC’s capex plans suggest a multi-month bullish trend, with the 52W high ($1,358.00) as the next critical threshold. A breakout here could trigger a retest of the Bollinger Band upper limit ($1,331.77) and potentially push toward $1,400. Meanwhile, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF’s 3.5% gain today underscores sector-wide conviction. Investors should prioritize a breakout above $1,358.00 or a pullback to the 200D MA ($866.87) as key signals. With AMAT surging 7.18%, the sector’s alignment with TSMC’s AI roadmap remains unshakable—position for a breakout or a consolidation phase.