ASML Surges 5.37% Pre-Market as TSMC Raises 2026 Capex Forecast

ASML Holding NV (ASML) surged 5.3714% in pre-market trading on January 16, 2026, as investor sentiment shifted toward optimism over sustained demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

The rally followed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) raising its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $52–56 billion, a significant jump from the $46 billion market expectation. TSMC, a critical client for ASML, highlighted increased investment in advanced chip production to meet artificial intelligence-driven demand, signaling potential for higher orders of lithography tools. Analysts note that TSMC’s aggressive spending plan, coupled with rising AI workloads, could accelerate equipment procurement across the industry, with ASML positioned to benefit from its dominance in EUV technology.

Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating for ASML, setting a price target of EUR1,300, citing TSMC’s capex increase and the broader AI-driven semiconductor expansion. The firm emphasized that ASML’s fourth-quarter earnings report on January 28 may reflect stronger-than-expected growth momentum, particularly as TSMC’s investment timeline aligns with long-term equipment demand. However, analysts caution that construction delays could temporarily offset near-term gains, though the trajectory for 2027 remains positive.

Industry analysts have also pointed to the potential for a KDJ Golden Cross in ASML’s technical indicators, which could signal a bullish shift in momentum for the stock. This comes amid growing expectations for strong earnings and increasing order activity driven by TSMC's capex guidance. While the market remains cautious about near-term supply chain and construction timelines, the long-term outlook for ASML remains robust.