ASML shares surged 5.37% as TSMC raises 2026 capex forecast to 52B–56B

ASML Holding NV’s shares surged 5.37% in pre-market trading on Thursday, driven by renewed optimism in the semiconductor sector following key updates from major clients.

The rally followed news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to $52 billion–$56 billion, exceeding prior expectations. As a primary supplier of advanced lithography systems, ASML stands to benefit from TSMC’s expanded investment in AI-driven chip manufacturing, which is accelerating demand for next-generation semiconductor tools. TSMC’s decision reflects sustained strength in AI workloads, with analysts noting that higher capex typically translates to increased orders for ASML’s EUV lithography machines.

Analysts highlight that ASML’s dominance in cutting-edge chipmaking technology positions it to capitalize on long-term AI infrastructure growth. The company’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report on January 28 will be closely watched for further confirmation of its order momentum and strategic alignment with evolving industry needs.

Recent industry reports suggest that AI-driven semiconductor demand may remain a strong tailwind for ASML for the next 18 months. However, supply chain bottlenecks and potential overcapacity in the sector could pose risks for near-term growth projections.

Investors are advised to monitor both technical indicators and fundamental developments to better assess the company’s trajectory in the coming quarters.