ASML Shares Surge 8.78% Amid Strong Institutional Buying, Technical Bullish Signals

ASML Holding's recent performance saw a significant 8.78% surge in the most recent session, with the price closing at 1163.78. This sharp rally suggests strong institutional or retail buying pressure, potentially fueled by positive earnings, sector momentum, or macroeconomic catalysts. The candlestick pattern indicates a bullish reversal from a prior consolidation phase, with key support levels identified around 1068.92–1072.14 (a cluster of previous lows) and resistance at 1133.48–1163.78 (recent highs). A breakout above 1163.78 could target the next resistance at 1172.77, while a pullback to 1068.92 may test the strength of the short-term bullish bias.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action forms a "Bullish Abandoned Baby" pattern, where a large bearish candle is followed by a doji and a large bullish candle, signaling a potential trend reversal.

The 1068.92–1072.14 zone has historically acted as a psychological support, with multiple tests between December 2025 and early January 2026. A close below this range may invalidate the bullish setup, but the recent 8.78% move suggests immediate overhead demand.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (calculated from the 50 most recent closing prices) is currently above the 100-day and 200-day averages, indicating a medium-term bullish trend. The 50-day MA is likely in the 1040–1050 range, while the 200-day MA sits near 1030–1040. The price is trading above both, suggesting alignment between short- and long-term trends. A crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA (a "Golden Cross") could reinforce the bullish case, though it may take weeks to materialize.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line (12,26,9) has crossed above the signal line, with a histogram expansion indicating strengthening momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows the %K line at overbought territory (~80), with %D trailing closely, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the recent surge may extend the overbought condition, and a divergence between price highs and KDJ lows could signal a near-term reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to ~1133.48–1172.77. The price is currently at the upper band, indicating high volatility and a possible short-term correction. A retest of the middle band (~1153) could act as a pivot level, with a break below suggesting a return to the lower band (~1133.48).
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume spiked to 2.698M on the recent 8.78% rally, a 50% increase from the prior session's 561.6K. This surge in volume validates the move, suggesting conviction in the bullish trend. However, if volume declines on subsequent upmoves, it may indicate waning momentum.
RSI
The 14-day RSI is currently near 75–80, entering overbought territory. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it signals caution. A drop below 60 would confirm a pullback, but a sustained RSI above 70 may indicate continued strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels from the recent low of 1054.47 (December 2025) to the high of 1163.78 (January 2026), key retracement levels at 1135.67 (23.6%), 1115.58 (38.2%), and 1095.49 (50%) could act as dynamic support. A retest of the 50% level may offer a buying opportunity, but a breakdown below 1095.49 could trigger a deeper correction.

Confluence and Divergences
The bullish setup is reinforced by alignment between the MACD crossover, RSI overbought condition, and Fibonacci retracement levels. However, the KDJ stochastic oscillator's overbought divergence and the price reaching the upper Bollinger Band suggest caution. A failure to hold above 1068.92 could trigger a sell-off, while a break above 1163.78 may extend the rally. Traders should monitor volume sustainability and RSI behavior for early reversal signals.
Probabilistic Outlook
The probability of a continuation of the bullish trend is ~60–70% in the short term, contingent on maintaining above 1068.92 and positive volume. A pullback to 1095.49–1115.58 offers a high-probability entry zone for longs, with a stop-loss below 1068.92. A breakdown below this level may initiate a downtrend targeting 1035–1050, where previous support levels congregate.