ASML Shares Surge 7.69% in Three Days as Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

ASML Holding shares gained 3.75% in the most recent session, extending a three-day winning streak to 7.69%, closing at $781.7. This strong near-term performance warrants a detailed technical analysis using the specified framework.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals a bullish sequence: the three consecutive green candles with higher highs/lows demonstrate strengthening buying momentum. Key resistance is now evident near the August highs around $770-$773.50 and further up around the $800 psychological level tested in early July. Support appears firm near $753 (recent consolidation lows) and more significantly near $735, which held during the September 2nd sell-off. The reversal from the $725.85 low on September 2nd formed a bullish engulfing pattern against the prior down-day, foreshadowing the current rally.
Moving Average Theory
The short-term trend is bullish, with the price trading significantly above the 50-day MA (calculated mentally around $737). The 100-day MA (~$720) and 200-day MA (~$717) are trending higher, confirming a long-term uptrend. The current price posture well above all key moving averages suggests strong bullish momentum. The 50-day acting as dynamic support during the early September pullback reinforces this positive structure. A sustained move above the psychological $800 level would target potential resistance near longer-term average confluences.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Mentally simulated MACD analysis shows the signal line recently crossing above the MACD line around the $735-$740 level, triggering a bullish crossover coinciding with the price rebound. The MACD histogram is in positive territory and rising, confirming strengthening bullish momentum. KDJ parameters (using typical settings: 9,3,3) show the K-line crossing above the D-line from oversold territory (<30) around the same time, generating a buy signal. Both the K and D lines are currently rising steeply towards overbought territory (>80), suggesting strong near-term momentum but potentially nearing a short-term exhaustion point.
Bollinger Bands
Price is currently trading near the upper Bollinger Band (~$780-$785), signifying strength but also indicating the potential for short-term overextension beyond the typical volatility range based on the 20-period average. Recent band contraction was observed during the consolidation phase in late August/early September (around $730-$760) before the current expansion phase began with the breakout above $760. This contraction and subsequent expansion signaled the start of the current uptrend leg. Trading near the upper band suggests the possibility of a temporary pause or minor pullback towards the middle band (20-day MA, ~$750).
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains are backed by increasing volume, particularly the jump to 1.88 million shares on the latest +3.75% up-day (Sept 5), significantly higher than the preceding two up-days (1.33M & 1.53M). This strong volume confirms buyer conviction behind the breakout. Contrast this with the elevated volume on the steep decline on April 16th and the large negative gap on July 16th – capitulation sell events likely marked significant lows. The current volume surge on rising prices validates the uptrend's robustness.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Based on the 14-period calculation using the formula provided, the RSI is currently estimated to be near 68-70, approaching overbought territory (>70). This reflects the powerful recent rally. While not yet decisively above 70, it suggests short-term buying pressure may be becoming stretched. It serves as a warning signal for potential near-term consolidation or a minor pullback, rather than an immediate reversal signal, especially given the prevailing bullish trend. Bullish RSI divergences appeared during the late August lows as price held support near $725 while RSI formed higher lows.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant decline from the July peak near $826.56 to the September low of $716.20:
23.6% Retracement: ~$742.50
38.2% Retracement: ~$757.25
50.0% Retracement: ~$771.40
61.8% Retracement: ~$785.50
78.6% Retracement: ~$802.20
The price has decisively overcome the 38.2% level ($757.25), turning it into support. It is now challenging the 50% level (~$771.40 – aligning with key August resistance). The next significant targets are the 61.8% level ($785.50) and the key $800/$802 area (78.6%). The 50% level is a critical near-term resistance hurdle.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Strong confluence exists for the uptrend continuation: price above rising MAs, bullish MACD/KDJ crossovers, volume confirmation, and a decisive break above key Candlestick/Fibonacci resistance near $757-$770. However, potential near-term headwinds arise from RSI approaching overbought levels and price pushing against the upper Bollinger Band alongside the 50% Fibonacci resistance (~$771.40-$780). This confluence near $770-$785 suggests potential short-term consolidation. No significant bearish divergences are currently evident among the momentum oscillators. The path of least resistance remains upwards, supported by strong volume and momentum indicators, though a near-term pause or pullback towards support ($757-$765) may emerge to relieve overbought pressure before challenging $785-$800.