ASML shares surge 5.37% pre-market on TSMC's 2026 capex boost

ASML Holding NV shares surged 5.3714% in pre-market trading on January 16, 2026, following renewed optimism in the semiconductor sector driven by a bullish outlook from its largest client, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC).

The rally was fueled by TSMC’s announcement of a 2026 capital expenditure budget of $52–56 billion, exceeding market expectations by nearly 21%. As the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, ASML stands to benefit from a significant portion of these investments, which are tied to advanced chip production for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

Analysts highlighted ASML’s strategic position as a bottleneck in cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing. The company’s market capitalization surpassed $500 billion, marking a milestone as one of Europe’s most valuable firms. Upstream equipment peers also gained traction, reflecting confidence in the broader AI-driven infrastructure build-out.

Analyst sentiment turned positive, with Bernstein upgrading ASML to “Outperform” and raising its price target to €1,300, while RBC Capital initiated coverage with a $1,550 target. Despite valuation risks flagged by cautious observers, the stock’s 60% premium to its 200-day moving average underscores a strong technical outlook.

Investors will closely watch ASML’s January 28 earnings report, where revised 2026 guidance could validate the recent re-rating. The company’s ability to translate TSMC’s spending plans into higher-order growth remains key to sustaining momentum.