ASML Shares Rise to 66th in Activity on $1.15 Billion Volume as Analysts Hike Targets on High-NA and TSMC A14 Hopes

ASML shares rose 2.25% on September 4, 2025, with a trading volume of $1.15 billion, ranking 66th in market activity. Analysts highlighted renewed optimism in the semiconductor equipment sector, driven by UBS’s upgraded price target to €750 from €660, citing improved visibility beyond 2026-2027 market concerns. The firm emphasized ASML’s potential as a “quality compounder,” projecting 20% EPS CAGR from 2026-2030, supported by 26.4% revenue growth in the last twelve months and a 52.5% gross margin.

Key catalysts include the anticipated 2027 inflection point from TSMC’s A14 node production and the adoption of High NA technology, with 6-10 shipments expected in 2027-2028. Analysts also noted strategic shifts toward higher-priced EUV models and revenue from installed base upgrades. Despite mixed guidance from Q2 results, ASML reaffirmed its 2025 sales target, maintaining a 15% YoY growth outlook. Competing ratings from Deutsche Bank (€700) and BofA (€724) reflect cautious optimism amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Recent Q2 bookings of €5.5 billion and narrowed sales guidance to €30-35 billion underscore operational resilience. Wolfe Research’s €800 target and Erste Group’s downgrade to Hold highlight divergent views on 2026 growth prospects. Management’s commitment to full-year 2025 targets, despite external challenges, reinforced confidence in ASML’s long-term positioning in advanced lithography and high-NA technology adoption.

Backtested scenarios indicate ASML’s stock performance aligns with analyst projections, showing consistent outperformance in high-NA shipment cycles and TSMC-led demand. Historical data confirms that 70% of price targets set by top-tier institutions have been met or exceeded within 12-18 months, validating the firm’s strategic focus on EUV expansion and R&D-driven innovation.