ASML Shares Plunge 3.7% on Mixed Earnings Outlook and AI Demand Concerns Ranks 47th in $2.03B Trading Volume Surge

ASML shares closed at a 3.71% loss on July 31, 2025, with a daily trading volume of $2.03 billion—a 99.89% surge from the previous day—ranking 47th in market activity. The decline followed mixed guidance from its July 16 earnings report, where the company failed to confirm 2026 growth amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, despite reaffirming 2030 targets. The stock’s intraday low of $691.21 marked a 3.48% drop from its prior close, reflecting broader semiconductor sector caution as peers like Lam Research also faced declines.

Investor concerns center on near-term demand moderation for AI and edge computing, despite ASML’s strong Q2 revenue of $8.94 billion (up 23.2% YoY) and its critical role in high-margin EUV lithography systems. The sell-off highlights sensitivity to client capital expenditure cycles at key manufacturers, with TSMC and Intel’s budget constraints amplifying sector-wide risks. Technical indicators show an oversold RSI of 30.37, bearish MACD divergence, and support/resistance levels at $678.83 and $759.46, suggesting continued downward pressure unless a rebound above $700–710 materializes.

A backtest of ASML’s performance following intraday declines of at least 3% revealed a 54.98% win rate over three days, 56.31% over ten days, and 56.48% over 30 days. The strategy of purchasing the top 500 high-volume stocks and holding for one day generated a 166.71% return from 2022 to July 30, 2025, outperforming the benchmark by 137.53%. This underscores the potential for short-term gains amid high-liquidity momentum, though volatility remains a key risk factor for such concentrated strategies.