ASML Rises 3.2% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

ASML Holding (ASML) advanced 3.21% to close at 713.12 on August 7, 2025, marking its second consecutive daily gain and achieving a 3.41% cumulative increase over this period, accompanied by notably higher trading volume.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a robust bullish candlestick with a high of 716.90 and low of 706.62, closing near the session peak. This pattern follows a Doji-like candle on August 6, suggesting indecision preceding bullish conviction. Key resistance now emerges at the July 29 swing high of 726.92, while support is established at the August 6 low of 685.44. The breakout above psychological resistance at 700—previously tested on August 4 and July 31—validates bullish momentum, with the body length indicating strong buying pressure.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (722.5) and 100-day moving average (728.3) both slope downward, reflecting near-term bearish pressure, while the ascending 200-day moving average (715.2) provides dynamic support. The current price of 713.12 hovers just below the 50-day and 100-day MAs but above the 200-day MA, signaling a tug-of-war between intermediate bearish and long-term bullish forces. A decisive close above the 50-day MA could shift near-term bias positively.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive for the first time since July, indicating building bullish momentum as the MACD line (trend) converges toward a potential crossover above the signal line (trigger). Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator shows %K (85) crossing above %D (75) from oversold territory, supporting short-term upside potential. However, KDJ’s proximity to overbought levels (>80) warrants monitoring for exhaustion. This dual momentum alignment strengthens the case for trend reversal, though divergence remains absent.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted significantly during early August’s consolidation, reflecting diminished volatility. The price has now pushed toward the upper band (719.1) after rebounding from the lower band on August 6. This expansion signals renewed directional energy, with a sustained break above the upper band likely confirming bullish continuation. Conversely, failure to hold above the 20-day middle band (704.8) could signal false breakout.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 3.21% advance on August 7 occurred on 1.72 million shares—41% above the 10-day average volume—demonstrating robust participation that validates breakout sincerity. This volume surge contrasts with the muted volume during the preceding downswing (e.g., August 5’s -1.39% move on average volume), confirming bearish exhaustion and institutional accumulation at support. Volume divergence is absent, reinforcing price sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 62.3 resides in neutral territory, recovering from oversold levels (<30) tested August 6. This rebound avoids overbought (>70) extremes, leaving room for additional upside. The RSI’s parallel ascent with price action provides confirmation, though traders should note its role as a secondary warning indicator that requires overbought/oversold thresholds to be contextualized with trend strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the July 16 high (760.90) and August 6 low (685.44) as anchor points, key retracement levels are established: 23.6% (743.06), 38.2% (732.07), 50% (723.17), and 61.8% (714.27). The current close near the 61.8% level (714.27) represents immediate resistance-turned-support confluence with the 200-day MA and psychological 700 level. A breach above 723.17 (50% retracement) would target 732.07 next.
Confluence Points & Divergences
Confluence exists between the 61.8% Fibonacci level (714.27), 200-day MA support (715.2), and the volume-backed breakout above 700—a trifecta reinforcing bullish reversal potential. Simultaneously, MACD’s positive histogram and KDJ’s bullish crossover align with candlestick and volume signals. No significant divergences are observed across indicators, though traders should monitor overbought KDJ readings for near-term exhaustion risks. The collective evidence suggests a high-probability continuation toward 723 resistance, contingent on sustaining above 700 support.