ASML: A Rare Dip Opportunity Amid Promising Long-Term AI Investment Thesis

ASML Holding N.V. has lowered its FY2025 guidance, but its investment thesis remains promising due to a long-term AI investment cycle that balances tariff risks. The company is well-supported, and the recent dip presents a buying opportunity.

ASML Holding N.V. has recently narrowed its financial targets for the year 2025 due to increasing uncertainty stemming from President Trump's tariff threats. The Dutch semiconductor equipment supplier has warned that it can no longer guarantee growth for 2026, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical developments [1].

The company's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, stated that while ASML is preparing for growth in 2026, it cannot confirm this at the current stage. This warning comes three months after ASML had projected growth for 2025 and 2026 based on customer conversations. The company has also adjusted its guidance for 2025, now expecting sales to grow around 15% to approximately €32.5 billion, compared to a previous range of €30 billion to €35 billion. The gross margin is expected to be around 52%, down from a prior guidance range of 51% to 53% [1].

Investors will be closely monitoring ASML's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for July 16. Analysts forecast an EPS of $6.13 on $8.82 billion in revenue, with a focus on the health of the order book and the impact of tariffs on margins. The company has indicated that most new U.S. tariff costs will be passed to American customers [2].

The recent easing of restrictions on AI chip exports to China by the U.S. government could potentially boost demand for ASML's products. The U.S. Commerce Department has agreed to restart reviewing license applications for AI chips from Nvidia and AMD, which could generate billions in revenue [3].

Despite the uncertainty, ASML's investment thesis remains promising due to a long-term AI investment cycle that balances tariff risks. The company's recent dip in shares presents a potential buying opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the semiconductor industry [4].

References:
[1] https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ASML-HOLDING-N-V-12002973/news/ASML-Narrows-Guidance-Amid-Tariff-Uncertainty-Warns-On-2026-Growth-Update-50519622/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/gurufocus:4637b0f89094b:0-asml-q2-earnings-preview-ai-momentum-battles-tariff-uncertainty/
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/asml-cfo-roger-dassen-lifting-china-ai-chip-controls-boost-demand-2507/
[4] https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ASML-HOLDING-N-V-12002973/news/ASML-Narrows-Guidance-Amid-Tariff-Uncertainty-Warns-On-2026-Growth-Update-50519622/