ASML Just Raised 2026 Sales to €45B-Still a Buy, or Already Priced for Perfection?

ASML's second guidance hike confirms AI demand, but expectations are higher now

ASML has again shown that demand for AI-related chipmaking equipment remains strong. Management raised its 2026 outlook for a second time this year to €43 billion to €45 billion in sales, up from the prior €36 billion to €40 billion range. That revision followed a solid quarter: Q2 sales reached €9.3 billion and net income reached €2.9 billion, while management said first-half order intake remained extremely strong. In practical terms, customers are still committing to more systems and spending more on services.

The stock now has a harder job

ASML's edge comes from scarcity in advanced lithography

That operating strength has a straightforward source: ASML sells the only tools in the world capable of the lithography needed for the most advanced chips used in AI. If a chipmaker wants to stay in the top tier, it cannot skip ASML at the key patterning step. That gives the company a uniquely tight position in the supply chain.

Customer spending is still being driven by chip scarcity

Management said demand for chips is outpacing supply, and customers are accelerating capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond. That helps explain why ASML continues to see strong demand even after a major run in the shares.

Volume and margins are moving in the right direction

ASML is not only selling more equipment. The company plans about 30% more manufacturing capacity next year for its EUV and DUV tools. It also expects gross margin of 54% to 56%, above the prior 51% to 53% range, while the revised 2026 outlook implies around 16% growth at the midpoint. That combination suggests the business model is getting stronger as demand stays firm.

Valuation leaves less room for error

ASML can remain an excellent business and still be a difficult stock. Shares have delivered a 157.6% return over the past three years and a 139.5% return over the last year, while trading at 59.1x earnings. The stock also sits about 30% above some intrinsic value estimates. That means investors are still paying a premium for future growth, even as the latest guidance points higher.

China remains a support, but policy is still a watchpoint

One reason the bull case stays intact is that export restrictions have not erased the opportunity in China. ASML still expects the country to account for roughly one-fifth of its revenue this year. That does not remove policy risk, but it does show that a meaningful part of the demand base is still operating.

The key risk is no longer demand alone

The more immediate concern is timing and expectations. Recent coverage has pointed to timing uncertainty around TSMC's adoption of high NA EUV tools, which matters less for near-term shipments than it does for how investors view the timing of newer revenue contributions. For a stock with a premium multiple, that distinction matters. The long-term thesis does not depend on a perfect quarter, but the share price likely will not stay comfortable if execution slips.

What would change the setup from here?

The most useful watchlist is simple:

• Confirmation: Q3 sales should land within the company's €11.0B-€12.0B sales guide, with gross margin inside the 55% to 57% range. That would show the higher outlook is still tracking to execution.
• Durability: Management needs to keep showing that customer commitments and capacity expansion plans remain firm.
• The next handoff: Investors now need proof that AI-driven chip spending can carry ASML into 2027 and beyond.

In plain English, the demand story is no longer the easy part. The business still looks strong, but the stock now needs proof, not just promise.