ASML's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on EUV Revenue, AI Demand, and High NA Timelines

The above is the analysis of the conflicting points in this earnings call

Business Commentary:

* Strong Financial Performance in Q3 2025: - ASML Holding reported net sales of EUR 7.5 billion for Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 51.6%. - Growth was driven by recognition of one High NA system and EUR 2 billion in installed base revenue.

• EUV and China Market Dynamics:
• ASML recorded net bookings of EUR 5.4 billion for Q3, including EUR 3.6 billion for EUV systems.

• The company expects EUV to increase in the product mix, while business in China may decrease due to lower demand from Chinese customers in 2026.

• Strategic Partnership with Mistral AI:

• ASML formed a strategic partnership with Mistral AI, taking an 11% share in the company as a lead investor.

• This collaboration is aimed at improving the performance and speed of ASML's products and enhancing AI integration within its systems.

• Technological Advancements and Product Innovation:

• ASML achieved significant progress in EUV technology, with more than 300,000 wafers run on High NA systems.

• Recent product launches include the first 5200 EUV system for SK hynix and the XT:260 scanner for advanced packaging, indicating strong execution of the technology roadmap.

• Long-Term Growth Opportunities:

• ASML anticipates continued demand for advanced applications driven by AI, expanding into 3D integration and AI value creation on its products.
• The company targets a potential revenue opportunity of between EUR 44 billion and EUR 60 billion by 2030, with a gross margin between 56% and 60%.